GFS vs ICON
For Europe, ICON is generally the stronger of the two in the short range thanks to its high-resolution nests; GFS has the longer range (16 days vs about 7.5) and blends with the 3 km HRRR over the United States, which makes it the better choice for North American short-range detail. Globally the two have similar medium-range skill, both below ECMWF.
| NOAA GFS | DWD ICON | |
|---|---|---|
| Run by | NOAA / National Centers for Environmental Prediction | Deutscher Wetterdienst (German Weather Service) |
| Origin | United States | Germany |
| Resolution | ~13 km (blended with HRRR 3 km over the US) | 13 km global, 7 km Europe (ICON-EU), 2 km Central Europe (ICON-D2) |
| Model runs | 4 per day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) | 4 per day global; hourly for ICON-D2 |
| Forecast range | up to 16 days | up to 7 days |
| Type | Physics-based NWP | Physics-based NWP |
| Also called | American model, Global Forecast System | German model, ICON-EU, ICON-D2 |
| Strengths | Frequent updates, long range, US convective detail when blended with HRRR. | Short-range detail over Europe, thunderstorms (ICON-D2), terrain-driven precipitation. |
| Weaknesses | More run-to-run swings than ECMWF in the medium range; can over-deepen distant lows. | Global range ends around day 7; outside Europe it falls back to the 13 km global grid. |
Key differences
- Europe, days 0–3: ICON (ICON-EU / ICON-D2) usually more detailed and reliable.
- United States, days 0–2: GFS seamless (with HRRR) has the edge.
- Range: GFS 16 days, ICON about 7.5 days.
Questions
Is GFS or ICON more accurate?
For Europe, ICON is generally the stronger of the two in the short range thanks to its high-resolution nests; GFS has the longer range (16 days vs about 7.5) and blends with the 3 km HRRR over the United States, which makes it the better choice for North American short-range detail. Globally the two have similar medium-range skill, both below ECMWF.
Which is the European model and which is the American model?
The "European model" is ECMWF (IFS, and its AI sibling AIFS). The "American model" is NOAA's GFS. The German model is ICON, the Canadian model GEM, the UK model UKMO and the French models ARPEGE/AROME.
Where can I see GFS and ICON side by side?
On every MeteoStack city page: the stack shows GFS, ICON and up to ten other models hour by hour, with their median consensus, spread and rain odds. It is free and works for any place on Earth.
More comparisons
ECMWF vs GFS · ECMWF vs ICON · GFS vs ICON · ECMWF vs AIFS · ECMWF vs UKMO · GFS vs GEM · ECMWF vs GEM · ICON vs ARPEGE · GFS vs AIFS · UKMO vs GFS · ECMWF vs JMA · ICON vs UKMO · ECMWF vs ARPEGE · GFS vs JMA