UKMO vs GFS
UK Met Office (UK model) and NOAA GFS (American model) are independent forecasts built by different weather services. UKMO: Atlantic depressions, UK and Ireland rain and wind, medium-range pattern. GFS: Frequent updates, long range, US convective detail when blended with HRRR. Neither is right every time: the useful signal is whether they agree. Compare them live below for any city.
| UK Met Office | NOAA GFS | |
|---|---|---|
| Run by | Met Office (United Kingdom) | NOAA / National Centers for Environmental Prediction |
| Origin | United Kingdom | United States |
| Resolution | ~10 km global; 2 km UKV over the UK | ~13 km (blended with HRRR 3 km over the US) |
| Model runs | 2–4 per day | 4 per day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) |
| Forecast range | up to 7 days | up to 16 days |
| Type | Physics-based NWP | Physics-based NWP |
| Also called | UK model, Met Office Unified Model, UKV | American model, Global Forecast System |
| Strengths | Atlantic depressions, UK and Ireland rain and wind, medium-range pattern. | Frequent updates, long range, US convective detail when blended with HRRR. |
| Weaknesses | Open data covers about 7 days. | More run-to-run swings than ECMWF in the medium range; can over-deepen distant lows. |
Key differences
- UKMO resolution: ~10 km global; 2 km UKV over the UK; GFS: ~13 km (blended with HRRR 3 km over the US).
- UKMO range: about 7 days; GFS: about 16 days.
- UKMO updates: 2–4 per day; GFS: 4 per day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC).
- UKMO weak spots: Open data covers about 7 days. GFS weak spots: More run-to-run swings than ECMWF in the medium range; can over-deepen distant lows.
Questions
Is UKMO or GFS more accurate?
UK Met Office (UK model) and NOAA GFS (American model) are independent forecasts built by different weather services. UKMO: Atlantic depressions, UK and Ireland rain and wind, medium-range pattern. GFS: Frequent updates, long range, US convective detail when blended with HRRR. Neither is right every time: the useful signal is whether they agree. Compare them live below for any city.
Which is the European model and which is the American model?
The "European model" is ECMWF (IFS, and its AI sibling AIFS). The "American model" is NOAA's GFS. The German model is ICON, the Canadian model GEM, the UK model UKMO and the French models ARPEGE/AROME.
Where can I see UKMO and GFS side by side?
On every MeteoStack city page: the stack shows UKMO, GFS and up to ten other models hour by hour, with their median consensus, spread and rain odds. It is free and works for any place on Earth.
More comparisons
ECMWF vs GFS · ECMWF vs ICON · GFS vs ICON · ECMWF vs AIFS · ECMWF vs UKMO · GFS vs GEM · ECMWF vs GEM · ICON vs ARPEGE · GFS vs AIFS · UKMO vs GFS · ECMWF vs JMA · ICON vs UKMO · ECMWF vs ARPEGE · GFS vs JMA