Today
4 Nov
6° 2°
0%0.0 mm
89%
10 weather models · one stack
Vilnius weather
Vilnius, Lithuania
54.73°, 25.26° · 101 m
Local time 03:14
Confidence 89%
Vilnius weather today: 10 models agree with high confidence on a high of 6°C and a low of 2°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 8°C. Dry: only 10% of models show rain. Next likely rain: Thursday 12 November (80% of models, ~3.0 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
8° 3°
10%0.0 mm
80%
Fri
6 Nov
6° 0°
0%0.0 mm
93%
Sat
7 Nov
6° -1°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Sun
8 Nov
5° 2°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Mon
9 Nov
4° -1°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Tue
10 Nov
4° -1°
33%0.0 mm
48%
Wed
11 Nov
5° -0°
40%0.0 mm
51%
Thu
12 Nov
5° 2°
80%3.0 mm
60%
Fri
13 Nov
5° 1°
100%4.5 mm
63%
Sat
14 Nov
4° 1°
50%1.4 mm
52%
Sun
15 Nov
5° -0°
33%0.6 mm
54%
Mon
16 Nov
6° 1°
33%0.0 mm
58%
Tue
17 Nov
5° 2°
33%0.0 mm
38%
Wed
18 Nov
7° 4°
50%1.1 mm
10%
Thu
19 Nov
5° -1°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Vilnius
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Vilnius on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Vilnius
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 6°/2° · 0.0 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 6°/0° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 5°/2° · 0.0 mm | 4°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 4°/-1° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 6°/2° · 0.0 mm | 8°/4° · 0.0 mm | 6°/0° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 6°/1° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-2° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 5°/1° · 0.0 mm | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 6°/3° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 1°/-1° · 4.2 mm |
| GFS | 6°/2° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 6°/1° · 0.0 mm | 6°/0° · 0.0 mm | 4°/2° · 0.0 mm | 5°/0° · 0.0 mm | 5°/1° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 6°/3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.5 mm | 6°/1° · 0.0 mm | 7°/1° · 0.0 mm | 7°/2° · 0.0 mm | 4°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 2°/-3° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 5°/1° · 0.1 mm | 8°/2° · 1.5 mm | 5°/-1° · 0.7 mm | 4°/-5° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-3° · 0.6 mm | 2°/-5° · 0.0 mm | 4°/-2° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 6°/2° · 0.0 mm | 8°/2° · 0.6 mm | 6°/0° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 4°/-1° · 0.3 mm | 4°/1° · 7.8 mm |
| ARPEGE | 5°/1° · 0.1 mm | 7°/3° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-2° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 5°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 6°/3° · 0.9 mm | 5°/3° · 0.0 mm | 5°/3° · 0.3 mm | 3°/0° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 4°/1° · 0.6 mm | 8°/2° · 0.0 mm | 6°/1° · 0.6 mm | 5°/-0° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| MET | 7°/4° · 0.0 mm | 8°/4° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 48/100. JMA brings 7.8 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 1° (AIFS) to 5° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Vilnius weather: questions
Will it rain in Vilnius tomorrow?
Dry: only 10% of models show rain. Across 10 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 1.5 mm.
When will it rain next in Vilnius?
The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 12 November: 80% of models, about 3.0 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Vilnius today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 6°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 6°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 10 models is 6°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Vilnius?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Vilnius forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 48/100): JMA forecasts 7.8 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · MET Norway Nordic · Methodology