Today
4 Nov
8° 4°
11%0.2 mm
73%
9 weather models · one stack
Krakow weather
Lesser Poland, Poland
50.02°, 19.95° · 214 m
Local time 02:15
Confidence 73%
Krakow weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 8°C and a low of 4°C. Dry: only 11% of models show rain. Tomorrow: 7°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Tuesday 10 November (83% of models, ~2.9 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
7° 1°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Fri
6 Nov
6° 0°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Sat
7 Nov
6° -2°
0%0.0 mm
84%
Sun
8 Nov
7° -2°
0%0.0 mm
78%
Mon
9 Nov
8° -1°
43%0.4 mm
40%
Tue
10 Nov
8° 1°
83%2.9 mm
64%
Wed
11 Nov
7° 2°
20%0.6 mm
68%
Thu
12 Nov
6° 2°
40%0.4 mm
32%
Fri
13 Nov
8° 2°
75%2.2 mm
23%
Sat
14 Nov
6° 1°
25%0.0 mm
59%
Sun
15 Nov
7° -1°
33%0.0 mm
49%
Mon
16 Nov
5° -1°
33%0.0 mm
46%
Tue
17 Nov
8° -0°
0%0.0 mm
59%
Wed
18 Nov
9° 5°
0%0.3 mm
53%
Thu
19 Nov
9° 4°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Krakow
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Krakow on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Krakow
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 8°/4° · 0.2 mm | 7°/1° · 0.0 mm | 6°/0° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 8°/-1° · 0.4 mm | 8°/1° · 2.9 mm |
| ECMWF | 9°/4° · 1.2 mm | 8°/2° · 0.0 mm | 5°/0° · 0.1 mm | 6°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 8°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 7°/2° · 5.4 mm |
| AIFS | 8°/4° · 0.6 mm | 7°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-4° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-5° · 0.0 mm | 8°/-3° · 2.4 mm | 5°/1° · 3.6 mm |
| GFS | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 9°/2° · 0.0 mm | 10°/2° · 0.0 mm | 9°/1° · 0.0 mm | 10°/2° · 0.2 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 9°/2° · 1.2 mm |
| ICON | 8°/4° · 0.1 mm | 8°/1° · 0.0 mm | 7°/0° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 6°/0° · 1.2 mm | 8°/-0° · 0.7 mm |
| GEM | 9°/1° · 0.3 mm | 8°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-4° · 0.8 mm | 6°/-6° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-10° · 0.0 mm | 8°/-8° · 0.2 mm | 6°/-0° · 2.8 mm |
| JMA | 7°/2° · 0.6 mm | 7°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-3° · 0.6 mm | 10°/-1° · 1.2 mm | 8°/1° · 3.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 7°/3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-2° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 8°/5° · 0.2 mm | 6°/2° · 0.0 mm | 7°/2° · 0.0 mm | 6°/1° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 8°/1° · 0.4 mm | - |
| CMA | 6°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 6°/1° · 0.0 mm | 7°/0° · 0.0 mm | 6°/1° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 40/100. AIFS brings 2.4 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 6° (ICON) to 10° (JMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Krakow weather: questions
Will it rain in Krakow tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Krakow?
The next day most models agree on rain is Tuesday 10 November: 83% of models, about 2.9 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Krakow today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 9°C with 1.2 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 9°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 8°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Krakow?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Krakow forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 40/100): AIFS forecasts 2.4 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology