Today
4 Nov
11° 4°
0%0.0 mm
91%
9 weather models · one stack
Cologne weather
North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
50.93°, 6.91° · 60 m
Local time 02:14
Confidence 91%
Cologne weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 11°C and a low of 4°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 11°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Wednesday 11 November (60% of models, ~4.2 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
11° 4°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Fri
6 Nov
10° 3°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Sat
7 Nov
9° 4°
11%0.0 mm
68%
Sun
8 Nov
11° 5°
29%0.3 mm
60%
Mon
9 Nov
9° 2°
29%0.0 mm
51%
Tue
10 Nov
9° 4°
33%0.4 mm
46%
Wed
11 Nov
9° 5°
60%4.2 mm
33%
Thu
12 Nov
7° 3°
80%1.6 mm
32%
Fri
13 Nov
8° 3°
25%0.2 mm
62%
Sat
14 Nov
8° 4°
25%0.0 mm
60%
Sun
15 Nov
9° 2°
33%0.0 mm
47%
Mon
16 Nov
8° 2°
33%0.0 mm
33%
Tue
17 Nov
11° 5°
33%0.0 mm
20%
Wed
18 Nov
10° 9°
50%0.7 mm
39%
Thu
19 Nov
11° 8°
100%11 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Cologne
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Cologne on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Cologne
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/5° · 0.3 mm | 9°/2° · 0.0 mm | 9°/4° · 0.4 mm |
| ECMWF | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 1.2 mm | 9°/2° · 0.0 mm | 7°/5° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 8°/2° · 0.0 mm | 7°/4° · 1.0 mm | 9°/4° · 2.0 mm | 7°/2° · 0.0 mm | 8°/1° · 0.8 mm |
| GFS | 11°/5° · 0.0 mm | 12°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/6° · 0.0 mm | 12°/6° · 0.2 mm | 12°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 11°/7° · 0.0 mm | 12°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 8°/4° · 0.3 mm | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/1° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 6.7 mm |
| GEM | 11°/5° · 0.0 mm | 11°/3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/1° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 9°/3° · 0.3 mm | 8°/-0° · 1.5 mm | 10°/3° · 5.6 mm |
| JMA | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 11°/5° · 0.6 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/2° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm | 12°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 9°/1° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 11°/6° · 0.0 mm | 12°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm | 11°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/8° · 2.8 mm | - |
| CMA | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/5° · 0.8 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 46/100. ICON brings 6.7 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 7° (JMA) to 10° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Cologne weather: questions
Will it rain in Cologne tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Cologne?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 11 November: 60% of models, about 4.2 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Cologne today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 11°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 11°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 11°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Cologne?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Cologne forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 46/100): ICON forecasts 6.7 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology