Today
4 Nov
10° 4°
0%0.0 mm
90%
9 weather models · one stack
Paris weather
Île-de-France Region, France
48.82°, 2.29° · 33 m
Local time 02:14
Confidence 90%
Paris weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 10°C and a low of 4°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 12°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Friday 6 November (56% of models, ~1.2 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
12° 4°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Fri
6 Nov
11° 6°
56%1.2 mm
42%
Sat
7 Nov
10° 4°
0%0.0 mm
72%
Sun
8 Nov
10° 4°
0%0.0 mm
73%
Mon
9 Nov
10° 5°
71%2.1 mm
44%
Tue
10 Nov
12° 8°
83%13 mm
38%
Wed
11 Nov
15° 7°
80%2.7 mm
27%
Thu
12 Nov
8° 4°
40%0.6 mm
16%
Fri
13 Nov
9° 4°
50%0.7 mm
42%
Sat
14 Nov
10° 4°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Sun
15 Nov
10° 5°
0%0.0 mm
72%
Mon
16 Nov
11° 4°
0%0.0 mm
51%
Tue
17 Nov
11° 6°
33%0.0 mm
15%
Wed
18 Nov
10° 7°
50%0.6 mm
17%
Thu
19 Nov
13° 10°
100%14 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Paris
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Paris on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Paris
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 12°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/6° · 1.2 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 2.1 mm | 12°/8° · 13 mm |
| ECMWF | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/3° · 0.2 mm | 8°/7° · 6.1 mm | 10°/4° · 0.1 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 1.5 mm | 13°/8° · 13 mm |
| AIFS | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/2° · 0.8 mm | 9°/6° · 2.8 mm | 9°/5° · 0.0 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/5° · 4.4 mm | 11°/8° · 16 mm |
| GFS | 11°/5° · 0.0 mm | 12°/5° · 0.1 mm | 11°/9° · 0.1 mm | 13°/8° · 0.4 mm | 14°/9° · 0.2 mm | 13°/8° · 0.0 mm | 11°/10° · 13 mm |
| ICON | 11°/6° · 0.0 mm | 12°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/3° · 0.0 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 2.1 mm | 18°/10° · 7.8 mm |
| GEM | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm | 13°/1° · 0.0 mm | 11°/3° · 0.2 mm | 11°/0° · 0.8 mm | 10°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 11°/4° · 15 mm | 15°/9° · 22 mm |
| JMA | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 1.2 mm | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 9°/6° · 0.0 mm | 9°/5° · 0.0 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 14°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 2.9 mm | 6°/2° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 11°/7° · 0.0 mm | 11°/5° · 0.0 mm | 11°/8° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 14°/9° · 16 mm | - |
| CMA | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 12°/4° · 0.5 mm | 12°/8° · 2.5 mm | 12°/6° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 38/100. GEM brings 22 mm of rain while JMA has 0.0 mm; highs range from 9° (JMA) to 18° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Paris weather: questions
Will it rain in Paris tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.8 mm.
When will it rain next in Paris?
The next day most models agree on rain is Friday 6 November: 56% of models, about 1.2 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Paris today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 9°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 11°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 10°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Paris?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Paris forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 38/100): GEM forecasts 22 mm of rain while JMA forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:49 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology