Today
4 Nov
10° 6°
0%0.0 mm
92%
9 weather models · one stack
Amsterdam weather
North Holland, The Netherlands
52.41°, 4.84° · 17 m
Local time 02:15
Confidence 92%
Amsterdam weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 10°C and a low of 6°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 8°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Sunday 8 November (71% of models, ~2.3 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
8° 4°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Fri
6 Nov
8° 3°
0%0.0 mm
85%
Sat
7 Nov
7° 2°
22%0.3 mm
60%
Sun
8 Nov
9° 5°
71%2.3 mm
63%
Mon
9 Nov
9° 4°
29%0.0 mm
61%
Tue
10 Nov
7° 4°
17%0.1 mm
69%
Wed
11 Nov
9° 5°
60%1.2 mm
40%
Thu
12 Nov
8° 6°
60%3.4 mm
28%
Fri
13 Nov
10° 5°
25%0.4 mm
61%
Sat
14 Nov
10° 5°
25%0.0 mm
69%
Sun
15 Nov
8° 3°
33%0.0 mm
48%
Mon
16 Nov
8° 2°
33%0.0 mm
15%
Tue
17 Nov
8° 2°
33%0.0 mm
15%
Wed
18 Nov
11° 7°
50%1.0 mm
21%
Thu
19 Nov
11° 6°
100%19 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Amsterdam
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Amsterdam on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Amsterdam
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 8°/4° · 0.0 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/2° · 0.3 mm | 9°/5° · 2.3 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 7°/4° · 0.1 mm |
| ECMWF | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/1° · 0.3 mm | 9°/5° · 1.8 mm | 9°/2° · 0.3 mm | 6°/2° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 8°/2° · 0.0 mm | 8°/2° · 1.4 mm | 9°/6° · 4.4 mm | 9°/3° · 1.4 mm | 7°/1° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 11°/7° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 1.8 mm | 10°/7° · 2.3 mm | 9°/6° · 0.0 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 8°/4° · 0.0 mm | 7°/3° · 0.0 mm | 6°/3° · 0.3 mm | 9°/5° · 0.0 mm | 9°/2° · 0.0 mm | 7°/5° · 8.1 mm |
| GEM | 9°/6° · 0.0 mm | 8°/4° · 0.0 mm | 8°/2° · 0.0 mm | 7°/1° · 0.0 mm | 10°/3° · 2.4 mm | 7°/4° · 0.0 mm | 7°/5° · 0.1 mm |
| JMA | 9°/6° · 0.0 mm | 7°/5° · 0.0 mm | 6°/4° · 0.0 mm | 6°/3° · 0.4 mm | 10°/5° · 3.8 mm | 9°/6° · 2.2 mm | 8°/5° · 0.2 mm |
| ARPEGE | 9°/6° · 0.0 mm | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/2° · 0.0 mm | 6°/1° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 9°/5° · 0.0 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 8°/2° · 0.0 mm | 8°/5° · 0.0 mm | 7°/6° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 9°/5° · 0.0 mm | 8°/4° · 0.0 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.3 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 60/100. GFS brings 1.8 mm of rain while GEM has 0.0 mm; highs range from 6° (JMA) to 10° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Amsterdam weather: questions
Will it rain in Amsterdam tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Amsterdam?
The next day most models agree on rain is Sunday 8 November: 71% of models, about 2.3 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Amsterdam today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 10°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 11°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 10°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Amsterdam?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Amsterdam forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 60/100): GFS forecasts 1.8 mm of rain while GEM forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:01 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology