Today
4 Nov
10° 8°
100%2.1 mm
85%
9 weather models · one stack
Belgrade weather
Central Serbia, Serbia
44.82°, 20.45° · 120 m
Local time 02:14
Confidence 85%
Belgrade weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 10°C and a low of 8°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 2.1 mm. Tomorrow: 10°C. Dry: no model shows rain.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
10° 6°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Fri
6 Nov
10° 3°
0%0.0 mm
84%
Sat
7 Nov
9° 1°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Sun
8 Nov
12° 2°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Mon
9 Nov
16° 6°
43%0.0 mm
26%
Tue
10 Nov
16° 11°
83%7.2 mm
33%
Wed
11 Nov
18° 10°
60%8.8 mm
9%
Thu
12 Nov
14° 7°
100%4.5 mm
47%
Fri
13 Nov
13° 7°
75%4.4 mm
23%
Sat
14 Nov
10° 4°
25%0.3 mm
49%
Sun
15 Nov
8° 3°
33%0.0 mm
54%
Mon
16 Nov
7° 1°
33%0.6 mm
38%
Tue
17 Nov
8° 3°
67%3.8 mm
25%
Wed
18 Nov
9° 4°
50%2.3 mm
26%
Thu
19 Nov
9° 7°
0%0.3 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Belgrade
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Belgrade on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Belgrade
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 10°/8° · 2.1 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/1° · 0.0 mm | 12°/2° · 0.0 mm | 16°/6° · 0.0 mm | 16°/11° · 7.2 mm |
| ECMWF | 10°/8° · 1.6 mm | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/1° · 0.0 mm | 12°/2° · 0.0 mm | 17°/6° · 0.0 mm | 19°/8° · 5.2 mm |
| AIFS | 9°/8° · 4.0 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 11°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 16°/3° · 0.0 mm | 14°/11° · 16 mm |
| GFS | 9°/8° · 2.4 mm | 11°/8° · 0.1 mm | 13°/7° · 0.0 mm | 13°/7° · 0.0 mm | 15°/7° · 0.0 mm | 13°/9° · 1.2 mm | 16°/11° · 2.7 mm |
| ICON | 9°/7° · 2.9 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/1° · 0.0 mm | 12°/0° · 0.0 mm | 13°/5° · 1.2 mm | 15°/10° · 9.1 mm |
| GEM | 11°/7° · 1.3 mm | 10°/2° · 0.0 mm | 10°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 9°/-3° · 0.0 mm | 12°/2° · 0.0 mm | 18°/2° · 0.0 mm | 23°/13° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 11°/8° · 1.4 mm | 11°/6° · 0.0 mm | 11°/3° · 0.0 mm | 12°/1° · 0.0 mm | 14°/5° · 0.4 mm | 19°/9° · 1.0 mm | 15°/11° · 26 mm |
| ARPEGE | 8°/7° · 2.1 mm | 8°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/0° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 11°/7° · 1.1 mm | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/2° · 0.0 mm | 11°/3° · 0.0 mm | 15°/6° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 11°/8° · 2.7 mm | 11°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 26/100. GFS brings 1.2 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 13° (ICON) to 19° (JMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Belgrade weather: questions
Will it rain in Belgrade tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.1 mm.
When will it rain next in Belgrade?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 100% of models, about 2.1 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Belgrade today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 10°C with 1.6 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 9°C with 2.4 mm. The median of all 9 models is 10°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Belgrade?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Belgrade forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 26/100): GFS forecasts 1.2 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology