Today
4 Nov
11° 8°
0%0.0 mm
91%
9 weather models · one stack
London weather
England, United Kingdom
51.49°, -0.16° · 23 m
Local time 01:16
Confidence 91%
London weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 11°C and a low of 8°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 10°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Thursday 19 November (100% of models, ~10 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
10° 8°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Fri
6 Nov
11° 7°
44%0.9 mm
46%
Sat
7 Nov
10° 7°
11%0.3 mm
75%
Sun
8 Nov
9° 4°
0%0.0 mm
89%
Mon
9 Nov
10° 4°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Tue
10 Nov
10° 6°
50%0.6 mm
43%
Wed
11 Nov
10° 5°
40%0.5 mm
33%
Thu
12 Nov
8° 2°
40%0.0 mm
19%
Fri
13 Nov
9° 4°
0%0.0 mm
94%
Sat
14 Nov
10° 6°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Sun
15 Nov
10° 7°
33%0.0 mm
56%
Mon
16 Nov
11° 6°
0%0.0 mm
61%
Tue
17 Nov
9° 6°
33%0.0 mm
32%
Wed
18 Nov
12° 9°
50%0.5 mm
30%
Thu
19 Nov
13° 9°
100%10 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around London
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over London on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for London
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 11°/8° · 0.0 mm | 10°/8° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.9 mm | 10°/7° · 0.3 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/6° · 0.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 10°/8° · 0.0 mm | 10°/8° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.2 mm | 10°/8° · 0.3 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 8°/4° · 0.0 mm | 9°/5° · 4.7 mm |
| AIFS | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 9°/6° · 0.0 mm | 9°/6° · 1.2 mm | 9°/5° · 0.0 mm | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 6°/2° · 0.0 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 12°/9° · 0.0 mm | 11°/9° · 0.0 mm | 10°/8° · 5.1 mm | 10°/9° · 0.2 mm | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.0 mm | 12°/7° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 11°/8° · 0.2 mm | 11°/9° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.2 mm | 11°/8° · 0.2 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/8° · 1.1 mm |
| GEM | 10°/9° · 0.1 mm | 10°/8° · 0.5 mm | 12°/7° · 0.1 mm | 9°/2° · 0.6 mm | 9°/1° · 0.0 mm | 11°/1° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 11 mm |
| JMA | 11°/9° · 0.1 mm | 10°/8° · 0.5 mm | 11°/8° · 0.1 mm | 10°/6° · 0.6 mm | 9°/4° · 0.5 mm | 9°/4° · 0.1 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 12°/8° · 0.1 mm | 12°/7° · 0.0 mm | 9°/6° · 0.9 mm | 8°/6° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 11°/9° · 0.0 mm | 11°/9° · 0.1 mm | 10°/8° · 1.5 mm | 10°/7° · 0.6 mm | 9°/6° · 0.9 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 11°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 11°/6° · 1.6 mm | 10°/7° · 4.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 43/100. GEM brings 11 mm of rain while AIFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 9° (ECMWF) to 12° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
London weather: questions
Will it rain in London tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.5 mm.
When will it rain next in London?
The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 19 November: 100% of models, about 10 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for London today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 10°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 12°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 11°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for London?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the London forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 43/100): GEM forecasts 11 mm of rain while AIFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology