Today
4 Nov
8° 6°
56%2.4 mm
45%
9 weather models · one stack
Sofia weather
Sofia-Capital, Bulgaria
42.71°, 23.40° · 555 m
Local time 03:14
Confidence 45%
Sofia weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 8°C and a low of 6°C. Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 2.4 mm. Tomorrow: 9°C. A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 2.3 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
9° 5°
33%0.6 mm
54%
Fri
6 Nov
10° 3°
0%0.0 mm
84%
Sat
7 Nov
9° 1°
0%0.0 mm
79%
Sun
8 Nov
10° 0°
0%0.0 mm
65%
Mon
9 Nov
10° 2°
14%0.0 mm
50%
Tue
10 Nov
14° 5°
33%0.6 mm
35%
Wed
11 Nov
17° 9°
40%0.3 mm
28%
Thu
12 Nov
17° 10°
60%1.2 mm
34%
Fri
13 Nov
15° 6°
75%3.2 mm
51%
Sat
14 Nov
12° 4°
75%1.4 mm
23%
Sun
15 Nov
8° 1°
33%0.0 mm
44%
Mon
16 Nov
6° 2°
33%0.3 mm
40%
Tue
17 Nov
6° 3°
33%0.9 mm
56%
Wed
18 Nov
8° 1°
50%1.8 mm
28%
Thu
19 Nov
9° 7°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Sofia
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Sofia on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Sofia
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 8°/6° · 2.4 mm | 9°/5° · 0.6 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/1° · 0.0 mm | 10°/0° · 0.0 mm | 10°/2° · 0.0 mm | 14°/5° · 0.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 9°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 0.6 mm | 11°/3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 10°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 13°/2° · 0.0 mm | 15°/3° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 7°/5° · 2.4 mm | 8°/5° · 1.5 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/0° · 0.0 mm | 10°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 11°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 13°/4° · 1.5 mm |
| GFS | 7°/6° · 0.9 mm | 8°/7° · 0.2 mm | 11°/5° · 0.0 mm | 12°/4° · 0.0 mm | 13°/4° · 0.0 mm | 9°/7° · 1.5 mm | 11°/8° · 3.3 mm |
| ICON | 8°/6° · 3.2 mm | 9°/6° · 0.7 mm | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/2° · 0.0 mm | 10°/2° · 0.6 mm | 14°/6° · 0.6 mm |
| GEM | 8°/5° · 0.9 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 9°/0° · 0.0 mm | 8°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/-4° · 0.0 mm | 14°/-1° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 9°/6° · 3.3 mm | 10°/5° · 1.5 mm | 12°/3° · 0.0 mm | 11°/1° · 0.0 mm | 13°/1° · 0.0 mm | 16°/3° · 0.0 mm | 18°/7° · 0.6 mm |
| ARPEGE | 8°/6° · 3.8 mm | 8°/3° · 2.3 mm | 9°/2° · 0.0 mm | 8°/1° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 0.3 mm | 9°/6° · 0.0 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/0° · 0.0 mm | 9°/1° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 8°/6° · 5.7 mm | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/1° · 0.0 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 35/100. GFS brings 3.3 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 11° (GFS) to 18° (JMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Sofia weather: questions
Will it rain in Sofia tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 2.3 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.6 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 2.3 mm.
When will it rain next in Sofia?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 56% of models, about 2.4 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Sofia today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 9°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 7°C with 0.9 mm. The median of all 9 models is 8°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Sofia?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Sofia forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 35/100): GFS forecasts 3.3 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology