Today
4 Nov
32° 24°
56%1.8 mm
33%
9 weather models · one stack
Chiang Mai weather
Chiang Mai, Thailand
18.80°, 99.03° · 313 m
Local time 08:20
Confidence 33%
Chiang Mai weather today: 9 models agree with low confidence on a high of 32°C and a low of 24°C. Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.8 mm. Tomorrow: 33°C. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 13 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
33° 24°
44%0.9 mm
32%
Fri
6 Nov
32° 24°
89%6.3 mm
62%
Sat
7 Nov
28° 23°
100%18 mm
86%
Sun
8 Nov
30° 22°
63%3.6 mm
42%
Mon
9 Nov
30° 21°
86%3.6 mm
58%
Tue
10 Nov
27° 20°
86%4.6 mm
70%
Wed
11 Nov
25° 19°
80%6.5 mm
54%
Thu
12 Nov
23° 19°
80%2.0 mm
44%
Fri
13 Nov
27° 20°
40%0.9 mm
38%
Sat
14 Nov
28° 19°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Sun
15 Nov
29° 20°
0%0.0 mm
84%
Mon
16 Nov
30° 20°
0%0.0 mm
85%
Tue
17 Nov
30° 20°
0%0.0 mm
80%
Wed
18 Nov
31° 19°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Thu
19 Nov
32° 22°
100%20 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Chiang Mai
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Chiang Mai on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Chiang Mai
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 32°/24° · 1.8 mm | 33°/24° · 0.9 mm | 32°/24° · 6.3 mm | 28°/23° · 18 mm | 30°/22° · 3.6 mm | 30°/21° · 3.6 mm | 27°/20° · 4.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 32°/24° · 0.4 mm | 32°/24° · 0.4 mm | 30°/23° · 7.1 mm | 29°/23° · 10 mm | 29°/22° · 4.8 mm | 27°/21° · 11 mm | 28°/20° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 34°/23° · 1.8 mm | 34°/23° · 2.2 mm | 32°/24° · 9.6 mm | 28°/23° · 18 mm | 30°/23° · 6.4 mm | 30°/22° · 8.4 mm | 27°/23° · 6.6 mm |
| GFS | 32°/22° · 0.5 mm | 32°/23° · 2.8 mm | 33°/22° · 6.3 mm | 27°/22° · 20 mm | 26°/21° · 18 mm | 27°/20° · 6.3 mm | 28°/20° · 6.8 mm |
| ICON | 31°/25° · 4.6 mm | 32°/24° · 13 mm | 31°/24° · 15 mm | 27°/24° · 26 mm | 30°/24° · 7.2 mm | 31°/24° · 1.3 mm | 25°/22° · 8.3 mm |
| GEM | 34°/23° · 2.1 mm | 34°/23° · 0.0 mm | 34°/23° · 0.4 mm | 29°/22° · 23 mm | 30°/21° · 0.0 mm | 30°/20° · 3.6 mm | 26°/20° · 1.2 mm |
| JMA | 29°/23° · 3.0 mm | 29°/22° · 1.2 mm | 28°/22° · 3.8 mm | 27°/23° · 15 mm | 29°/21° · 2.4 mm | 29°/21° · 2.0 mm | 25°/20° · 4.6 mm |
| ARPEGE | 36°/27° · 0.1 mm | 36°/28° · 0.0 mm | 34°/28° · 6.0 mm | 29°/25° · 24 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 33°/25° · 0.7 mm | 33°/25° · 0.0 mm | 32°/26° · 12 mm | 28°/24° · 10 mm | 32°/24° · 0.3 mm | 32°/23° · 0.0 mm | 27°/24° · 3.6 mm |
| CMA | 32°/24° · 2.7 mm | 33°/25° · 0.9 mm | 32°/25° · 5.1 mm | 29°/25° · 11 mm | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Thursday
Confidence is only 32/100. ICON brings 13 mm of rain while GEM has 0.0 mm; highs range from 29° (JMA) to 36° (ARPEGE). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Chiang Mai weather: questions
Will it rain in Chiang Mai tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 13 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.9 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 13 mm.
When will it rain next in Chiang Mai?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 56% of models, about 1.8 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Chiang Mai today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 32°C with 0.4 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 32°C with 0.5 mm. The median of all 9 models is 32°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Chiang Mai?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Chiang Mai forecast this week?
The least certain day is Thursday (confidence 32/100): ICON forecasts 13 mm of rain while GEM forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:13 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology