Today
4 Nov
21° 13°
0%0.0 mm
88%
9 weather models · one stack
Chengdu weather
Sichuan, China
30.69°, 104.12° · 494 m
Local time 09:15
Confidence 88%
Chengdu weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 21°C and a low of 13°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 21°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Saturday 7 November (89% of models, ~1.5 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
21° 14°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Fri
6 Nov
21° 14°
0%0.2 mm
83%
Sat
7 Nov
19° 15°
89%1.5 mm
74%
Sun
8 Nov
19° 14°
13%0.2 mm
62%
Mon
9 Nov
19° 13°
29%0.0 mm
47%
Tue
10 Nov
17° 10°
14%0.0 mm
57%
Wed
11 Nov
16° 11°
0%0.0 mm
72%
Thu
12 Nov
17° 12°
0%0.0 mm
74%
Fri
13 Nov
17° 13°
40%0.6 mm
46%
Sat
14 Nov
19° 13°
25%0.0 mm
53%
Sun
15 Nov
18° 14°
67%1.8 mm
65%
Mon
16 Nov
16° 12°
67%1.2 mm
46%
Tue
17 Nov
15° 13°
67%1.5 mm
32%
Wed
18 Nov
14° 10°
67%1.5 mm
53%
Thu
19 Nov
15° 8°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Chengdu
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Chengdu on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Chengdu
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm | 21°/14° · 0.0 mm | 21°/14° · 0.2 mm | 19°/15° · 1.5 mm | 19°/14° · 0.2 mm | 19°/13° · 0.0 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 21°/14° · 0.0 mm | 21°/13° · 0.2 mm | 22°/14° · 0.2 mm | 19°/15° · 5.2 mm | 17°/14° · 0.6 mm | 19°/13° · 0.0 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | 21°/14° · 0.3 mm | 22°/14° · 0.6 mm | 19°/16° · 4.5 mm | 18°/14° · 4.2 mm | 17°/13° · 1.2 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 21°/16° · 0.0 mm | 19°/16° · 0.0 mm | 22°/16° · 0.0 mm | 21°/17° · 1.3 mm | 22°/17° · 0.0 mm | 19°/14° · 1.2 mm | 15°/13° · 1.5 mm |
| ICON | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | 21°/15° · 0.0 mm | 20°/16° · 0.5 mm | 19°/16° · 1.5 mm | 19°/15° · 0.6 mm | 18°/12° · 0.0 mm | 18°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 21°/10° · 0.0 mm | 22°/10° · 0.1 mm | 21°/14° · 0.1 mm | 19°/15° · 3.0 mm | 18°/13° · 0.0 mm | 14°/8° · 0.0 mm | 13°/5° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 21°/14° · 0.0 mm | 22°/15° · 0.0 mm | 21°/16° · 0.0 mm | 20°/16° · 1.5 mm | 22°/17° · 0.3 mm | 20°/15° · 0.0 mm | 18°/12° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | 22°/14° · 0.9 mm | 18°/15° · 7.2 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | 21°/16° · 0.1 mm | 21°/14° · 0.0 mm | 20°/15° · 0.3 mm | 22°/17° · 0.0 mm | 19°/13° · 0.0 mm | 14°/11° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm | 18°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 0.6 mm | 18°/14° · 1.2 mm | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 47/100. AIFS brings 1.2 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 14° (GEM) to 20° (JMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Chengdu weather: questions
Will it rain in Chengdu tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.3 mm.
When will it rain next in Chengdu?
The next day most models agree on rain is Saturday 7 November: 89% of models, about 1.5 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Chengdu today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 21°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 21°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 21°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Chengdu?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Chengdu forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 47/100): AIFS forecasts 1.2 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology