Today
4 Nov
28° 24°
89%3.1 mm
77%
9 weather models · one stack
Guangzhou weather
Guangdong, China
23.09°, 113.25° · 15 m
Local time 09:18
Confidence 77%
Guangzhou weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 28°C and a low of 24°C. Rain expected: 89% of models agree, about 3.1 mm. Tomorrow: 30°C. A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 5.8 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
30° 24°
33%0.6 mm
51%
Fri
6 Nov
29° 24°
67%1.7 mm
46%
Sat
7 Nov
29° 23°
22%0.4 mm
63%
Sun
8 Nov
30° 23°
0%0.0 mm
84%
Mon
9 Nov
25° 19°
0%0.3 mm
77%
Tue
10 Nov
23° 17°
0%0.0 mm
75%
Wed
11 Nov
25° 16°
0%0.0 mm
74%
Thu
12 Nov
27° 19°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Fri
13 Nov
28° 20°
0%0.0 mm
74%
Sat
14 Nov
24° 21°
50%18 mm
22%
Sun
15 Nov
26° 19°
67%1.8 mm
62%
Mon
16 Nov
28° 20°
33%0.9 mm
44%
Tue
17 Nov
27° 21°
100%4.2 mm
57%
Wed
18 Nov
23° 19°
100%6.9 mm
45%
Thu
19 Nov
17° 12°
100%15 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Guangzhou
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Guangzhou on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Guangzhou
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 28°/24° · 3.1 mm | 30°/24° · 0.6 mm | 29°/24° · 1.7 mm | 29°/23° · 0.4 mm | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | 25°/19° · 0.3 mm | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 30°/24° · 7.9 mm | 30°/24° · 5.8 mm | 30°/23° · 8.6 mm | 29°/23° · 0.4 mm | 29°/23° · 0.6 mm | 24°/19° · 0.3 mm | 24°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 28°/24° · 4.5 mm | 28°/24° · 4.8 mm | 28°/23° · 3.3 mm | 28°/22° · 2.7 mm | 30°/23° · 0.6 mm | 24°/18° · 0.3 mm | 22°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 29°/25° · 10 mm | 33°/25° · 0.9 mm | 32°/26° · 0.1 mm | 28°/25° · 1.2 mm | 31°/25° · 0.0 mm | 26°/19° · 0.0 mm | 26°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 28°/24° · 0.6 mm | 30°/24° · 0.1 mm | 29°/24° · 1.4 mm | 28°/23° · 0.0 mm | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | 24°/17° · 0.3 mm | 22°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 29°/23° · 3.1 mm | 31°/22° · 0.0 mm | 31°/22° · 1.7 mm | 30°/22° · 0.6 mm | 31°/24° · 0.0 mm | 25°/16° · 0.0 mm | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 28°/24° · 1.8 mm | 31°/25° · 0.0 mm | 29°/25° · 0.0 mm | 31°/24° · 0.0 mm | 31°/24° · 0.0 mm | 27°/19° · 0.0 mm | 24°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 28°/23° · 1.5 mm | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | 29°/25° · 1.8 mm | 29°/24° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 29°/23° · 2.0 mm | 29°/24° · 3.4 mm | 31°/24° · 0.6 mm | 29°/24° · 0.6 mm | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | 28°/21° · 0.3 mm | 23°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 27°/22° · 7.8 mm | 30°/22° · 0.6 mm | 27°/23° · 2.7 mm | 27°/21° · 0.0 mm | 28°/21° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Friday
Confidence is only 46/100. ECMWF brings 8.6 mm of rain while JMA has 0.0 mm; highs range from 27° (CMA) to 32° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Guangzhou weather: questions
Will it rain in Guangzhou tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 5.8 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.6 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 5.8 mm.
When will it rain next in Guangzhou?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 89% of models, about 3.1 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Guangzhou today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 30°C with 7.9 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 29°C with 10 mm. The median of all 9 models is 28°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Guangzhou?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Guangzhou forecast this week?
The least certain day is Friday (confidence 46/100): ECMWF forecasts 8.6 mm of rain while JMA forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:17 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology