9 weather models · one stack

Honolulu weather

Q: When will it rain next in Honolulu?

The next day most models agree on rain is Monday 9 November: 57% of models, about 0.06 in.

Q: What do ECMWF and GFS say for Honolulu today?

ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 80°F with 0.09 in of rain; GFS (the American model) says 80°F with 0.11 in. The median of all 9 models is 80°F.

Q: Which weather model is most accurate for Honolulu?

On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.

Q: How reliable is the Honolulu forecast this week?

The least certain day is Monday (confidence 45/100): ECMWF forecasts 0.15 in of rain while ICON forecasts 0.00 in.

Hawaii, United States 21.34°, -157.89° · 4 m Local time 15:14 Confidence 62%

Honolulu weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 80°F and a low of 74°F. A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 0.12 in. Tomorrow: 80°F. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 0.09 in. Next likely rain: Monday 9 November (57% of models, ~0.06 in).

Embed

The stack

Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.

16-day consensus

Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.

Today

3 Nov

80° 74°

33%0.04 in

62%

Wed

4 Nov

80° 74°

44%0.04 in

50%

Thu

5 Nov

80° 75°

44%0.04 in

48%

Fri

6 Nov

80° 75°

44%0.02 in

50%

Sat

7 Nov

80° 74°

25%0.02 in

69%

Sun

8 Nov

80° 74°

43%0.04 in

53%

Mon

9 Nov

80° 74°

57%0.06 in

45%

Tue

10 Nov

80° 74°

20%0.02 in

69%

Wed

11 Nov

80° 75°

0%0.00 in

93%

Thu

12 Nov

80° 74°

20%0.01 in

63%

Fri

13 Nov

78° 74°

100%0.09 in

90%

Sat

14 Nov

80° 74°

33%0.04 in

57%

Sun

15 Nov

79° 74°

100%0.07 in

90%

Mon

16 Nov

79° 74°

100%0.09 in

86%

Tue

17 Nov

80° 73°

67%0.09 in

53%

Wed

18 Nov

80° 73°

0%0.01 in

70%

Model spaghetti

Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.

Model maps around Honolulu

ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Honolulu on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.

Open full-screen maps →

Loading model maps…

What each model says for Honolulu

Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.

Model	Today	Wed 4	Thu 5	Fri 6	Sat 7	Sun 8	Mon 9
Consensus	80°/74° · 0.04 in	80°/74° · 0.04 in	80°/75° · 0.04 in	80°/75° · 0.02 in	80°/74° · 0.02 in	80°/74° · 0.04 in	80°/74° · 0.06 in
ECMWF	80°/73° · 0.09 in	80°/72° · 0.09 in	80°/72° · 0.18 in	80°/73° · 0.09 in	79°/73° · 0.02 in	80°/73° · 0.05 in	79°/71° · 0.15 in
AIFS	78°/76° · 0.04 in	78°/76° · 0.07 in	78°/77° · 0.04 in	79°/77° · 0.06 in	78°/76° · 0.05 in	78°/76° · 0.09 in	77°/76° · 0.04 in
GFS	80°/74° · 0.11 in	80°/74° · 0.09 in	80°/75° · 0.10 in	80°/74° · 0.06 in	80°/74° · <0.01 in	80°/74° · 0.04 in	80°/74° · 0.06 in
ICON	81°/74° · 0.00 in	81°/75° · 0.00 in	83°/75° · 0.00 in	81°/75° · 0.00 in	81°/75° · 0.00 in	80°/74° · 0.00 in	83°/75° · 0.00 in
GEM	80°/75° · 0.12 in	80°/75° · 0.05 in	80°/75° · 0.20 in	79°/75° · 0.25 in	80°/75° · 0.25 in	80°/76° · 0.06 in	80°/74° · 0.13 in
JMA	80°/74° · 0.04 in	80°/74° · 0.04 in	81°/76° · 0.02 in	81°/75° · 0.02 in	80°/75° · 0.04 in	81°/75° · 0.04 in	82°/75° · 0.04 in
ARPEGE	79°/77° · 0.00 in	79°/77° · 0.00 in	79°/77° · 0.00 in	78°/77° · 0.00 in	-	-	-
UKMO	81°/73° · <0.01 in	82°/73° · 0.01 in	82°/73° · 0.06 in	81°/74° · 0.00 in	81°/74° · 0.00 in	80°/72° · 0.04 in	80°/73° · 0.07 in
CMA	81°/71° · 0.00 in	80°/73° · 0.00 in	81°/73° · 0.00 in	81°/74° · 0.00 in	80°/74° · 0.00 in	-	-

Where the models disagree: Monday

Confidence is only 45/100. ECMWF brings 0.15 in of rain while ICON has 0.00 in; highs range from 77° (AIFS) to 83° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.