Today
3 Nov
12° 6°
0%0.0 mm
89%
9 weather models · one stack
Vancouver weather
British Columbia, Canada
49.24°, -123.13° · 61 m
Local time 18:16
Confidence 89%
Vancouver weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 12°C and a low of 6°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 13°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 5.4 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
13° 5°
100%5.4 mm
83%
Thu
5 Nov
11° 8°
100%4.1 mm
94%
Fri
6 Nov
10° 9°
100%41 mm
90%
Sat
7 Nov
14° 9°
100%16 mm
78%
Sun
8 Nov
12° 8°
100%14 mm
76%
Mon
9 Nov
10° 7°
71%3.6 mm
62%
Tue
10 Nov
12° 9°
100%38 mm
85%
Wed
11 Nov
14° 11°
80%26 mm
64%
Thu
12 Nov
12° 10°
100%14 mm
78%
Fri
13 Nov
11° 9°
100%26 mm
85%
Sat
14 Nov
10° 9°
100%13 mm
94%
Sun
15 Nov
9° 7°
100%9.0 mm
95%
Mon
16 Nov
9° 7°
67%22 mm
54%
Tue
17 Nov
10° 7°
100%1.8 mm
75%
Wed
18 Nov
12° 9°
100%13 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Vancouver
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Vancouver on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Vancouver
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 12°/6° · 0.0 mm | 13°/5° · 5.4 mm | 11°/8° · 4.1 mm | 10°/9° · 41 mm | 14°/9° · 16 mm | 12°/8° · 14 mm | 10°/7° · 3.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 11°/7° · 0.0 mm | 13°/5° · 4.1 mm | 11°/7° · 1.0 mm | 10°/8° · 25 mm | 13°/7° · 4.8 mm | 12°/8° · 11 mm | 10°/7° · 6.6 mm |
| AIFS | 12°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 6.6 mm | 10°/8° · 7.2 mm | 10°/9° · 26 mm | 13°/9° · 32 mm | 12°/7° · 15 mm | 10°/6° · 11 mm |
| GFS | 12°/7° · 0.0 mm | 13°/6° · 13 mm | 11°/8° · 1.0 mm | 10°/9° · 13 mm | 14°/9° · 21 mm | 10°/8° · 11 mm | 10°/7° · 0.3 mm |
| ICON | 12°/6° · 0.0 mm | 13°/5° · 3.7 mm | 11°/9° · 1.4 mm | 10°/9° · 18 mm | 16°/10° · 14 mm | 13°/8° · 5.1 mm | 12°/7° · 6.0 mm |
| GEM | 11°/5° · 0.0 mm | 14°/3° · 4.0 mm | 11°/8° · 2.0 mm | 11°/9° · 41 mm | 14°/11° · 12 mm | 12°/7° · 14 mm | 9°/6° · 3.6 mm |
| JMA | 13°/5° · 0.0 mm | 13°/5° · 11 mm | 10°/9° · 9.0 mm | 12°/8° · 55 mm | 15°/8° · 25 mm | 15°/5° · 49 mm | 11°/3° · 2.4 mm |
| ARPEGE | 11°/6° · 0.0 mm | 13°/4° · 5.4 mm | 11°/9° · 4.1 mm | 11°/9° · 48 mm | 16°/10° · 3.9 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 12°/7° · 0.0 mm | 12°/6° · 4.1 mm | 11°/7° · 8.8 mm | 10°/9° · 92 mm | 15°/10° · 38 mm | 14°/8° · 20 mm | 12°/8° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 13°/5° · 0.0 mm | 14°/6° · 8.4 mm | 10°/7° · 4.8 mm | 11°/8° · 41 mm | 12°/6° · 16 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 62/100. AIFS brings 11 mm of rain while UKMO has 0.0 mm; highs range from 9° (GEM) to 12° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Vancouver weather: questions
Will it rain in Vancouver tomorrow?
Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 5.4 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 5.4 mm, ranging from 3.7 mm to 13 mm.
When will it rain next in Vancouver?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 100% of models, about 5.4 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Vancouver today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 11°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 12°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 12°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Vancouver?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Vancouver forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 62/100): AIFS forecasts 11 mm of rain while UKMO forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology