Today
4 Nov
10° 5°
0%0.0 mm
86%
9 weather models · one stack
Edinburgh weather
Scotland, United Kingdom
55.92°, -3.13° · 74 m
Local time 01:14
Confidence 86%
Edinburgh weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 10°C and a low of 5°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 10°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Sunday 8 November (71% of models, ~3.0 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
10° 7°
0%0.5 mm
92%
Fri
6 Nov
10° 8°
33%0.2 mm
63%
Sat
7 Nov
10° 8°
44%0.5 mm
54%
Sun
8 Nov
9° 7°
71%3.0 mm
69%
Mon
9 Nov
8° 5°
0%0.3 mm
77%
Tue
10 Nov
8° 3°
17%0.3 mm
71%
Wed
11 Nov
8° 4°
40%0.0 mm
38%
Thu
12 Nov
7° 3°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Fri
13 Nov
8° 3°
0%0.0 mm
68%
Sat
14 Nov
7° 3°
25%0.1 mm
59%
Sun
15 Nov
8° 4°
33%0.0 mm
34%
Mon
16 Nov
6° 2°
33%0.0 mm
17%
Tue
17 Nov
6° 3°
0%0.0 mm
57%
Wed
18 Nov
10° 6°
50%5.4 mm
37%
Thu
19 Nov
12° 7°
100%8.8 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Edinburgh
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Edinburgh on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Edinburgh
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 0.5 mm | 10°/8° · 0.2 mm | 10°/8° · 0.5 mm | 9°/7° · 3.0 mm | 8°/5° · 0.3 mm | 8°/3° · 0.3 mm |
| ECMWF | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 0.1 mm | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 10°/6° · 0.5 mm | 8°/7° · 8.8 mm | 9°/4° · 0.8 mm | 9°/3° · 0.5 mm |
| AIFS | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm | 9°/7° · 0.6 mm | 10°/8° · 0.0 mm | 10°/8° · 1.7 mm | 8°/6° · 1.9 mm | 7°/3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/3° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.5 mm | 9°/8° · 2.3 mm | 9°/8° · 4.9 mm | 9°/7° · 3.0 mm | 9°/7° · 0.6 mm | 7°/5° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 10°/8° · 1.5 mm | 9°/8° · 3.3 mm | 9°/7° · 0.7 mm | 9°/6° · 0.3 mm | 8°/6° · 0.9 mm |
| GEM | 9°/2° · 0.2 mm | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/5° · 0.2 mm | 10°/6° · 0.1 mm | 9°/5° · 0.6 mm | 8°/5° · 0.6 mm | 6°/2° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 9°/8° · 0.5 mm | 10°/8° · 2.5 mm | 10°/8° · 1.7 mm | 9°/8° · 3.0 mm | 8°/6° · 0.1 mm | 8°/4° · 1.8 mm |
| ARPEGE | 7°/3° · 0.2 mm | 9°/3° · 0.9 mm | 10°/7° · 0.2 mm | 9°/6° · 0.3 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 0.9 mm | 11°/9° · 0.1 mm | 10°/8° · 0.2 mm | 8°/5° · 6.1 mm | 4°/1° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 54/100. GFS brings 4.9 mm of rain while CMA has 0.0 mm; highs range from 9° (GFS) to 10° (UKMO). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Edinburgh weather: questions
Will it rain in Edinburgh tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.5 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.9 mm.
When will it rain next in Edinburgh?
The next day most models agree on rain is Sunday 8 November: 71% of models, about 3.0 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Edinburgh today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 10°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 10°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 10°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Edinburgh?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Edinburgh forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 54/100): GFS forecasts 4.9 mm of rain while CMA forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology