Today
4 Nov
12° 10°
56%1.2 mm
55%
9 weather models · one stack
Dublin weather
Leinster, Ireland
53.39°, -6.17° · 14 m
Local time 01:14
Confidence 55%
Dublin weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 12°C and a low of 10°C. Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.2 mm. Tomorrow: 12°C. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 1.9 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
12° 10°
44%0.5 mm
52%
Fri
6 Nov
11° 9°
22%0.4 mm
73%
Sat
7 Nov
10° 8°
67%2.5 mm
60%
Sun
8 Nov
10° 7°
43%0.7 mm
46%
Mon
9 Nov
10° 6°
29%0.6 mm
66%
Tue
10 Nov
10° 7°
33%0.3 mm
64%
Wed
11 Nov
10° 9°
40%0.6 mm
46%
Thu
12 Nov
9° 7°
20%0.0 mm
64%
Fri
13 Nov
10° 8°
0%0.0 mm
84%
Sat
14 Nov
10° 8°
25%0.1 mm
64%
Sun
15 Nov
10° 9°
33%0.0 mm
41%
Mon
16 Nov
10° 6°
0%0.0 mm
60%
Tue
17 Nov
11° 8°
33%0.5 mm
48%
Wed
18 Nov
13° 9°
100%2.6 mm
57%
Thu
19 Nov
14° 7°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Dublin
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Dublin on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Dublin
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 12°/10° · 1.2 mm | 12°/10° · 0.5 mm | 11°/9° · 0.4 mm | 10°/8° · 2.5 mm | 10°/7° · 0.7 mm | 10°/6° · 0.6 mm | 10°/7° · 0.3 mm |
| ECMWF | 12°/11° · 1.5 mm | 11°/10° · 1.0 mm | 11°/9° · 0.1 mm | 10°/8° · 2.5 mm | 8°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/6° · 0.6 mm | 10°/8° · 4.7 mm |
| AIFS | 12°/9° · 1.7 mm | 11°/9° · 1.9 mm | 10°/8° · 0.6 mm | 9°/7° · 2.3 mm | 8°/6° · 0.7 mm | 9°/5° · 0.0 mm | 9°/7° · 0.6 mm |
| GFS | 12°/10° · 2.2 mm | 12°/10° · 1.3 mm | 11°/9° · 0.0 mm | 11°/9° · 4.3 mm | 11°/9° · 2.3 mm | 11°/8° · 2.1 mm | 10°/9° · 1.3 mm |
| ICON | 12°/10° · 0.7 mm | 12°/10° · 0.0 mm | 11°/9° · 1.1 mm | 11°/8° · 5.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.4 mm | 10°/6° · 1.5 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 11°/9° · 1.2 mm | 12°/9° · 0.0 mm | 10°/8° · 0.4 mm | 10°/5° · 0.7 mm | 10°/6° · 1.6 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 12°/11° · 0.0 mm | 12°/11° · 0.0 mm | 11°/10° · 0.0 mm | 11°/10° · 3.1 mm | 10°/9° · 2.8 mm | 10°/7° · 0.1 mm | 10°/8° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 13°/11° · 1.6 mm | 13°/11° · 1.0 mm | 11°/9° · 1.6 mm | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 13°/11° · 0.0 mm | 12°/11° · 0.5 mm | 10°/9° · 0.3 mm | 9°/8° · 7.5 mm | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.9 mm | - |
| CMA | 12°/10° · 0.0 mm | 12°/10° · 0.0 mm | 11°/6° · 0.6 mm | 9°/6° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Sunday
Confidence is only 46/100. JMA brings 2.8 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 8° (ECMWF) to 11° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Dublin weather: questions
Will it rain in Dublin tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 1.9 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.5 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 1.9 mm.
When will it rain next in Dublin?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 56% of models, about 1.2 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Dublin today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 12°C with 1.5 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 12°C with 2.2 mm. The median of all 9 models is 12°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Dublin?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Dublin forecast this week?
The least certain day is Sunday (confidence 46/100): JMA forecasts 2.8 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology