Today
4 Nov
12° 8°
11%0.0 mm
82%
9 weather models · one stack
Manchester weather
England, United Kingdom
53.46°, -2.23° · 48 m
Local time 01:15
Confidence 82%
Manchester weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 12°C and a low of 8°C. Dry: only 11% of models show rain. Tomorrow: 11°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Saturday 7 November (56% of models, ~1.1 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
11° 7°
0%0.0 mm
88%
Fri
6 Nov
10° 6°
0%0.0 mm
89%
Sat
7 Nov
9° 7°
56%1.1 mm
48%
Sun
8 Nov
9° 5°
43%0.6 mm
46%
Mon
9 Nov
8° 3°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Tue
10 Nov
9° 4°
17%0.0 mm
66%
Wed
11 Nov
8° 3°
40%0.0 mm
34%
Thu
12 Nov
8° 2°
40%0.3 mm
36%
Fri
13 Nov
9° 5°
25%0.3 mm
62%
Sat
14 Nov
9° 5°
25%0.0 mm
67%
Sun
15 Nov
10° 4°
33%0.0 mm
40%
Mon
16 Nov
9° 6°
33%0.0 mm
35%
Tue
17 Nov
10° 7°
33%0.6 mm
46%
Wed
18 Nov
11° 9°
100%4.8 mm
67%
Thu
19 Nov
13° 8°
100%9.4 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Manchester
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Manchester on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Manchester
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 12°/8° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.0 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 9°/7° · 1.1 mm | 9°/5° · 0.6 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 12°/9° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.0 mm | 11°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | 8°/2° · 0.0 mm | 9°/5° · 9.4 mm |
| AIFS | 11°/8° · 0.0 mm | 10°/8° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 0.5 mm | 9°/7° · 2.4 mm | 9°/5° · 1.9 mm | 7°/3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 13°/8° · 0.0 mm | 12°/9° · 0.0 mm | 11°/8° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.1 mm | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 12°/8° · 0.0 mm | 12°/7° · 0.0 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 9°/7° · 1.1 mm | 9°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 12°/7° · 0.3 mm | 11°/7° · 0.2 mm | 11°/6° · 0.0 mm | 9°/5° · 0.0 mm | 9°/2° · 0.6 mm | 8°/1° · 0.0 mm | 9°/1° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 11°/8° · 1.8 mm | 11°/7° · 0.0 mm | 9°/6° · 0.5 mm | 9°/7° · 9.8 mm | 7°/5° · 2.8 mm | 8°/2° · 0.7 mm | 7°/1° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 13°/9° · 0.0 mm | 13°/8° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm | 8°/5° · 0.4 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 12°/9° · 0.0 mm | 11°/8° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 0.0 mm | 9°/8° · 3.0 mm | 9°/6° · 5.4 mm | 8°/3° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 12°/7° · 0.0 mm | 11°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/7° · 0.6 mm | 9°/6° · 4.2 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Sunday
Confidence is only 46/100. UKMO brings 5.4 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 7° (JMA) to 11° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Manchester weather: questions
Will it rain in Manchester tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.2 mm.
When will it rain next in Manchester?
The next day most models agree on rain is Saturday 7 November: 56% of models, about 1.1 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Manchester today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 12°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 13°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 12°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Manchester?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Manchester forecast this week?
The least certain day is Sunday (confidence 46/100): UKMO forecasts 5.4 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology