Today
4 Nov
16° 13°
100%17 mm
86%
9 weather models · one stack
Istanbul weather
Istanbul, Republic of Türkiye
41.02°, 28.89° · 39 m
Local time 04:15
Confidence 86%
Istanbul weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 16°C and a low of 13°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 17 mm. Tomorrow: 13°C. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 2.6 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
13° 10°
44%0.9 mm
51%
Fri
6 Nov
12° 9°
11%0.3 mm
81%
Sat
7 Nov
11° 8°
56%1.3 mm
46%
Sun
8 Nov
13° 8°
13%0.0 mm
64%
Mon
9 Nov
13° 8°
0%0.0 mm
86%
Tue
10 Nov
16° 10°
17%0.0 mm
63%
Wed
11 Nov
17° 14°
40%0.6 mm
47%
Thu
12 Nov
20° 17°
40%0.5 mm
40%
Fri
13 Nov
18° 14°
50%1.5 mm
27%
Sat
14 Nov
18° 10°
75%10 mm
50%
Sun
15 Nov
12° 10°
100%2.6 mm
55%
Mon
16 Nov
12° 10°
67%2.2 mm
56%
Tue
17 Nov
14° 11°
33%0.8 mm
54%
Wed
18 Nov
13° 11°
0%0.0 mm
63%
Thu
19 Nov
14° 12°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Istanbul
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Istanbul on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Istanbul
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 16°/13° · 17 mm | 13°/10° · 0.9 mm | 12°/9° · 0.3 mm | 11°/8° · 1.3 mm | 13°/8° · 0.0 mm | 13°/8° · 0.0 mm | 16°/10° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 16°/13° · 23 mm | 13°/11° · 1.6 mm | 12°/8° · 0.0 mm | 11°/8° · 1.9 mm | 12°/8° · 0.0 mm | 12°/7° · 0.0 mm | 13°/7° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 15°/14° · 16 mm | 14°/11° · 2.6 mm | 12°/10° · 0.6 mm | 10°/9° · 2.2 mm | 11°/9° · 0.6 mm | 13°/8° · 0.0 mm | 16°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 17°/13° · 14 mm | 13°/10° · 0.3 mm | 12°/10° · 0.5 mm | 13°/10° · 0.9 mm | 15°/9° · 0.0 mm | 15°/10° · 0.0 mm | 16°/12° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 17°/14° · 37 mm | 14°/10° · 0.8 mm | 11°/9° · 1.7 mm | 11°/8° · 0.6 mm | 13°/6° · 0.0 mm | 14°/5° · 0.0 mm | 16°/12° · 1.8 mm |
| GEM | 15°/12° · 38 mm | 12°/9° · 2.2 mm | 11°/6° · 0.1 mm | 11°/6° · 1.8 mm | 11°/6° · 0.6 mm | 12°/4° · 0.0 mm | 14°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 16°/13° · 32 mm | 13°/11° · 0.6 mm | 13°/10° · 0.0 mm | 12°/10° · 0.6 mm | 13°/10° · 0.0 mm | 14°/9° · 0.0 mm | 17°/12° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 15°/13° · 17 mm | 13°/11° · 2.1 mm | 13°/8° · 0.1 mm | 11°/6° · 1.3 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 16°/14° · 13 mm | 13°/10° · 0.6 mm | 12°/10° · 0.3 mm | 11°/8° · 5.9 mm | 10°/8° · 1.9 mm | 13°/9° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 18°/14° · 8.5 mm | 14°/10° · 0.9 mm | 13°/8° · 0.4 mm | 13°/8° · 0.0 mm | 14°/7° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 46/100. UKMO brings 5.9 mm of rain while CMA has 0.0 mm; highs range from 10° (AIFS) to 13° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Istanbul weather: questions
Will it rain in Istanbul tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 2.6 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.9 mm, ranging from 0.3 mm to 2.6 mm.
When will it rain next in Istanbul?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 100% of models, about 17 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Istanbul today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 16°C with 23 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 17°C with 14 mm. The median of all 9 models is 16°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Istanbul?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Istanbul forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 46/100): UKMO forecasts 5.9 mm of rain while CMA forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology