Today
4 Nov
7° 4°
33%0.4 mm
55%
9 weather models · one stack
Reykjavik weather
Capital Region, Iceland
64.08°, -21.96° · 34 m
Local time 01:17
Confidence 55%
Reykjavik weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 7°C and a low of 4°C. A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 2.6 mm. Tomorrow: 9°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 14 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
9° 6°
100%14 mm
94%
Fri
6 Nov
7° 4°
56%1.1 mm
51%
Sat
7 Nov
8° 4°
100%16 mm
97%
Sun
8 Nov
7° 2°
100%4.0 mm
87%
Mon
9 Nov
4° 1°
29%0.0 mm
52%
Tue
10 Nov
4° -0°
17%0.3 mm
57%
Wed
11 Nov
5° -2°
60%2.9 mm
22%
Thu
12 Nov
7° 1°
60%2.4 mm
41%
Fri
13 Nov
7° 5°
75%1.8 mm
57%
Sat
14 Nov
7° 6°
100%7.0 mm
83%
Sun
15 Nov
6° 5°
100%6.5 mm
69%
Mon
16 Nov
7° 4°
67%4.1 mm
15%
Tue
17 Nov
4° 2°
67%1.1 mm
28%
Wed
18 Nov
6° 1°
50%2.8 mm
19%
Thu
19 Nov
7° 6°
0%0.8 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Reykjavik
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Reykjavik on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Reykjavik
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 7°/4° · 0.4 mm | 9°/6° · 14 mm | 7°/4° · 1.1 mm | 8°/4° · 16 mm | 7°/2° · 4.0 mm | 4°/1° · 0.0 mm | 4°/-0° · 0.3 mm |
| ECMWF | 8°/5° · 2.6 mm | 9°/6° · 19 mm | 7°/3° · 2.3 mm | 8°/4° · 12 mm | 8°/4° · 4.9 mm | 4°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 1°/-1° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 8°/6° · 0.5 mm | 10°/8° · 16 mm | 8°/6° · 1.1 mm | 8°/6° · 18 mm | 7°/2° · 1.5 mm | 3°/1° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-2° · 0.6 mm |
| GFS | 7°/4° · 0.4 mm | 9°/5° · 20 mm | 7°/4° · 0.0 mm | 8°/3° · 8.8 mm | 8°/2° · 5.6 mm | 4°/1° · 0.0 mm | 4°/1° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 7°/3° · 0.1 mm | 10°/6° · 11 mm | 6°/1° · 0.0 mm | 8°/2° · 16 mm | 7°/2° · 4.1 mm | 7°/4° · 6.1 mm | 4°/2° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 7°/4° · 0.1 mm | 9°/7° · 8.2 mm | 8°/3° · 1.9 mm | 8°/4° · 22 mm | 6°/-1° · 2.9 mm | 4°/-2° · 1.1 mm | 1°/-4° · 0.7 mm |
| JMA | 8°/6° · 1.1 mm | 9°/7° · 14 mm | 8°/5° · 3.4 mm | 8°/6° · 26 mm | 6°/4° · 4.0 mm | 4°/2° · 0.0 mm | 6°/4° · 5.3 mm |
| ARPEGE | 7°/4° · 0.0 mm | 10°/6° · 11 mm | 7°/5° · 0.0 mm | 8°/7° · 15 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 7°/4° · 0.1 mm | 10°/6° · 11 mm | 7°/5° · 0.3 mm | 9°/5° · 18 mm | 7°/2° · 2.4 mm | 2°/-4° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 5°/1° · 1.0 mm | 9°/5° · 27 mm | 8°/1° · 20 mm | 8°/1° · 7.3 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Friday
Confidence is only 51/100. CMA brings 20 mm of rain while GFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 6° (ICON) to 8° (CMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Reykjavik weather: questions
Will it rain in Reykjavik tomorrow?
Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 14 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 14 mm, ranging from 8.2 mm to 27 mm.
When will it rain next in Reykjavik?
The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 5 November: 100% of models, about 14 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Reykjavik today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 8°C with 2.6 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 7°C with 0.4 mm. The median of all 9 models is 7°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Reykjavik?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Reykjavik forecast this week?
The least certain day is Friday (confidence 51/100): CMA forecasts 20 mm of rain while GFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:17 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology