Today
4 Nov
20° 10°
0%0.0 mm
78%
9 weather models · one stack
Tehran weather
Tehran, Iran
35.68°, 51.43° · 1176 m
Local time 04:44
Confidence 78%
Tehran weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 20°C and a low of 10°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 19°C. Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.1 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
19° 12°
56%1.1 mm
35%
Fri
6 Nov
20° 11°
78%2.4 mm
46%
Sat
7 Nov
15° 12°
100%21 mm
67%
Sun
8 Nov
17° 11°
100%7.6 mm
65%
Mon
9 Nov
15° 7°
14%0.3 mm
66%
Tue
10 Nov
11° 5°
0%0.0 mm
75%
Wed
11 Nov
11° 5°
0%0.0 mm
67%
Thu
12 Nov
13° 4°
0%0.0 mm
68%
Fri
13 Nov
15° 6°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Sat
14 Nov
17° 6°
0%0.0 mm
86%
Sun
15 Nov
16° 6°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Mon
16 Nov
17° 8°
0%0.0 mm
91%
Tue
17 Nov
16° 8°
0%0.0 mm
86%
Wed
18 Nov
16° 9°
0%0.1 mm
58%
Thu
19 Nov
15° 12°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Tehran
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Tehran on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Tehran
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 20°/10° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 1.1 mm | 20°/11° · 2.4 mm | 15°/12° · 21 mm | 17°/11° · 7.6 mm | 15°/7° · 0.3 mm | 11°/5° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 22°/10° · 0.0 mm | 22°/12° · 1.1 mm | 21°/10° · 2.3 mm | 18°/12° · 14 mm | 18°/11° · 7.8 mm | 16°/8° · 0.5 mm | 13°/6° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 18°/8° · 0.0 mm | 16°/11° · 1.2 mm | 14°/10° · 11 mm | 11°/10° · 23 mm | 12°/9° · 19 mm | 13°/7° · 2.4 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 22°/16° · 0.0 mm | 21°/16° · 5.3 mm | 20°/17° · 0.0 mm | 18°/15° · 5.4 mm | 19°/13° · 5.0 mm | 17°/14° · 0.3 mm | 15°/11° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 21°/10° · 0.0 mm | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 21°/10° · 0.6 mm | 14°/12° · 21 mm | 17°/10° · 7.3 mm | 13°/7° · 0.0 mm | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 19°/11° · 0.5 mm | 18°/10° · 2.7 mm | 14°/11° · 39 mm | 14°/9° · 13 mm | 14°/6° · 0.4 mm | 11°/2° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 18°/13° · 2.0 mm | 20°/12° · 1.2 mm | 15°/13° · 6.0 mm | 18°/13° · 4.0 mm | 15°/7° · 0.0 mm | 11°/5° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 21°/11° · 0.0 mm | 21°/11° · 2.4 mm | 17°/12° · 27 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | 18°/13° · 1.1 mm | 18°/12° · 9.9 mm | 15°/12° · 23 mm | 17°/13° · 9.0 mm | 16°/10° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 20°/11° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 0.3 mm | 19°/11° · 8.2 mm | 17°/10° · 4.3 mm | 16°/11° · 5.2 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Thursday
Confidence is only 35/100. GFS brings 5.3 mm of rain while ICON has 0.0 mm; highs range from 16° (AIFS) to 22° (ECMWF). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Tehran weather: questions
Will it rain in Tehran tomorrow?
Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.1 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 1.1 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 5.3 mm.
When will it rain next in Tehran?
The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 5 November: 56% of models, about 1.1 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Tehran today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 22°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 22°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 20°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Tehran?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Tehran forecast this week?
The least certain day is Thursday (confidence 35/100): GFS forecasts 5.3 mm of rain while ICON forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:59 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology