Today
4 Nov
28° 19°
78%1.8 mm
56%
9 weather models · one stack
Baghdad weather
Baghdad, Iraq
33.36°, 44.44° · 41 m
Local time 04:15
Confidence 56%
Baghdad weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 28°C and a low of 19°C. Rain expected: 78% of models agree, about 1.8 mm. Tomorrow: 27°C. Dry: only 11% of models show rain.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
27° 20°
11%0.2 mm
75%
Fri
6 Nov
26° 19°
44%0.7 mm
46%
Sat
7 Nov
24° 18°
78%5.9 mm
56%
Sun
8 Nov
24° 17°
38%0.2 mm
51%
Mon
9 Nov
19° 13°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Tue
10 Nov
19° 10°
0%0.0 mm
74%
Wed
11 Nov
19° 10°
0%0.0 mm
78%
Thu
12 Nov
20° 10°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Fri
13 Nov
22° 12°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Sat
14 Nov
23° 12°
0%0.0 mm
95%
Sun
15 Nov
23° 14°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Mon
16 Nov
24° 15°
0%0.0 mm
78%
Tue
17 Nov
25° 16°
0%0.0 mm
53%
Wed
18 Nov
23° 16°
50%0.9 mm
4%
Thu
19 Nov
20° 14°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Baghdad
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Baghdad on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Baghdad
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 28°/19° · 1.8 mm | 27°/20° · 0.2 mm | 26°/19° · 0.7 mm | 24°/18° · 5.9 mm | 24°/17° · 0.2 mm | 19°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/10° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 28°/20° · 1.5 mm | 28°/19° · 0.5 mm | 27°/19° · 0.0 mm | 27°/17° · 5.9 mm | 25°/17° · 0.0 mm | 18°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 30°/21° · 2.4 mm | 29°/21° · 0.4 mm | 26°/20° · 2.0 mm | 24°/18° · 18 mm | 24°/16° · 1.0 mm | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm | 18°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 30°/24° · 5.7 mm | 27°/22° · 0.2 mm | 27°/19° · 0.7 mm | 27°/19° · 4.7 mm | 25°/19° · 0.4 mm | 22°/17° · 0.0 mm | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 25°/19° · 1.8 mm | 25°/18° · 0.0 mm | 24°/17° · 0.2 mm | 26°/18° · 1.0 mm | 23°/13° · 0.0 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 18°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 29°/15° · 2.6 mm | 27°/15° · 0.0 mm | 26°/17° · 6.1 mm | 24°/15° · 0.4 mm | 24°/13° · 0.0 mm | 18°/7° · 0.0 mm | 19°/3° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 30°/19° · 0.2 mm | 26°/20° · 1.6 mm | 28°/19° · 0.0 mm | 23°/20° · 15 mm | 22°/18° · 2.4 mm | 19°/13° · 0.0 mm | 21°/12° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 27°/19° · 0.1 mm | 27°/20° · 0.1 mm | 26°/19° · 2.4 mm | 22°/18° · 13 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 27°/20° · 2.5 mm | 26°/20° · 0.2 mm | 26°/20° · 0.6 mm | 26°/19° · 0.6 mm | 25°/20° · 0.0 mm | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 27°/19° · 1.8 mm | 26°/19° · 0.0 mm | 25°/18° · 5.0 mm | 24°/16° · 17 mm | 23°/17° · 1.5 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Friday
Confidence is only 46/100. GEM brings 6.1 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 24° (ICON) to 28° (JMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Baghdad weather: questions
Will it rain in Baghdad tomorrow?
Dry: only 11% of models show rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.2 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 1.6 mm.
When will it rain next in Baghdad?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 78% of models, about 1.8 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Baghdad today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 28°C with 1.5 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 30°C with 5.7 mm. The median of all 9 models is 28°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Baghdad?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Baghdad forecast this week?
The least certain day is Friday (confidence 46/100): GEM forecasts 6.1 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:59 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology