Today
3 Nov
12° -1°
0%0.0 mm
64%
9 weather models · one stack
Calgary weather
Alberta, Canada
51.07°, -114.03° · 1043 m
Local time 19:14
Confidence 64%
Calgary weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 12°C and a low of -1°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 7°C. Dry: no model shows rain. No day in the next 16 days where most models agree on rain.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
7° -2°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Thu
5 Nov
9° -2°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Fri
6 Nov
9° -1°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Sat
7 Nov
9° 2°
0%0.0 mm
67%
Sun
8 Nov
13° 4°
0%0.0 mm
90%
Mon
9 Nov
7° -1°
0%0.0 mm
74%
Tue
10 Nov
11° 0°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Wed
11 Nov
12° 6°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Thu
12 Nov
10° 2°
0%0.0 mm
58%
Fri
13 Nov
7° 2°
0%0.0 mm
45%
Sat
14 Nov
5° 0°
33%0.0 mm
15%
Sun
15 Nov
5° -0°
33%0.0 mm
15%
Mon
16 Nov
4° -2°
0%0.0 mm
45%
Tue
17 Nov
2° -3°
0%0.0 mm
64%
Wed
18 Nov
5° -0°
0%0.3 mm
32%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Calgary
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Calgary on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Calgary
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 12°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 9°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 9°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 9°/2° · 0.0 mm | 13°/4° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-1° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 12°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 8°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 11°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 12°/2° · 0.0 mm | 13°/3° · 0.0 mm | 5°/1° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 11°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 6°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 9°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 9°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 9°/5° · 0.0 mm | 13°/4° · 0.0 mm | 7°/0° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 15°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 10°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 10°/0° · 0.0 mm | 9°/2° · 0.0 mm | 12°/4° · 0.0 mm | 8°/-1° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 13°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 8°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 11°/-2° · 0.1 mm | 9°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 15°/1° · 0.0 mm | 14°/5° · 0.0 mm | 10°/-1° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 12°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 8°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 11°/-3° · 0.0 mm | 13°/-6° · 0.0 mm | 11°/1° · 0.0 mm | 12°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 8°/-5° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 6°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 4°/-3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-3° · 0.0 mm | 9°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 9°/6° · 0.0 mm | 14°/5° · 0.0 mm | 4°/-2° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 11°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 9°/-3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/-3° · 0.0 mm | 10°/2° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 12°/3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 11°/1° · 0.0 mm | 9°/0° · 0.0 mm | 7°/2° · 0.0 mm | 14°/3° · 0.0 mm | 6°/1° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 10°/1° · 0.0 mm | 5°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 9°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 9°/0° · 0.0 mm | 8°/1° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 64/100. ECMWF brings 0.0 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 6° (JMA) to 15° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Calgary weather: questions
Will it rain in Calgary tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Calgary?
No day in the next 16 days where most models agree on rain.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Calgary today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 12°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 15°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 12°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Calgary?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Calgary forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 64/100): ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology