Today
4 Nov
24° 14°
0%0.0 mm
85%
9 weather models · one stack
Jerusalem weather
Jerusalem, Israel
31.74°, 35.22° · 792 m
Local time 03:14
Confidence 85%
Jerusalem weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 24°C and a low of 14°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 21°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Friday 6 November (56% of models, ~1.2 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
21° 13°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Fri
6 Nov
19° 13°
56%1.2 mm
39%
Sat
7 Nov
16° 12°
89%4.7 mm
74%
Sun
8 Nov
17° 10°
57%1.2 mm
44%
Mon
9 Nov
17° 9°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Tue
10 Nov
19° 9°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Wed
11 Nov
19° 9°
0%0.0 mm
88%
Thu
12 Nov
20° 10°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Fri
13 Nov
21° 11°
0%0.0 mm
92%
Sat
14 Nov
21° 13°
0%0.0 mm
85%
Sun
15 Nov
22° 14°
0%0.0 mm
85%
Mon
16 Nov
22° 14°
0%0.3 mm
70%
Tue
17 Nov
20° 14°
33%0.0 mm
26%
Wed
18 Nov
21° 13°
50%0.8 mm
18%
Thu
19 Nov
21° 12°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Jerusalem
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Jerusalem on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Jerusalem
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 24°/14° · 0.0 mm | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/13° · 1.2 mm | 16°/12° · 4.7 mm | 17°/10° · 1.2 mm | 17°/9° · 0.0 mm | 19°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 24°/14° · 0.0 mm | 22°/13° · 0.1 mm | 18°/13° · 2.6 mm | 16°/11° · 4.7 mm | 17°/10° · 2.7 mm | 17°/8° · 0.0 mm | 17°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 24°/15° · 0.0 mm | 22°/15° · 0.0 mm | 20°/15° · 3.0 mm | 16°/12° · 13 mm | 17°/11° · 5.4 mm | 17°/9° · 0.0 mm | 17°/8° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 22°/15° · 0.0 mm | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | 19°/14° · 0.8 mm | 17°/12° · 3.4 mm | 18°/12° · 0.2 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 24°/14° · 0.0 mm | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm | 16°/13° · 1.8 mm | 15°/12° · 0.0 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | 18°/9° · 0.0 mm | 18°/8° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 23°/12° · 0.0 mm | 20°/10° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 0.8 mm | 15°/12° · 6.7 mm | 18°/9° · 0.3 mm | 18°/8° · 0.0 mm | 19°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | 17°/13° · 1.2 mm | 16°/12° · 6.6 mm | 16°/11° · 1.2 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | 19°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 24°/15° · 0.0 mm | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/13° · 0.3 mm | 16°/12° · 2.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 23°/13° · 0.0 mm | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm | 17°/13° · 2.7 mm | 15°/12° · 5.1 mm | 15°/10° · 2.1 mm | 14°/8° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 24°/13° · 0.0 mm | 22°/14° · 0.0 mm | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 18°/12° · 2.1 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Friday
Confidence is only 39/100. AIFS brings 3.0 mm of rain while CMA has 0.0 mm; highs range from 16° (ICON) to 20° (CMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Jerusalem weather: questions
Will it rain in Jerusalem tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.1 mm.
When will it rain next in Jerusalem?
The next day most models agree on rain is Friday 6 November: 56% of models, about 1.2 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Jerusalem today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 24°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 22°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 24°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Jerusalem?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Jerusalem forecast this week?
The least certain day is Friday (confidence 39/100): AIFS forecasts 3.0 mm of rain while CMA forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:08 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology