Today
3 Nov
28° 21°
67%4.5 mm
55%
9 weather models · one stack
Caracas weather
Distrito Federal, Venezuela
10.58°, -66.83° · 882 m
Local time 21:18
Confidence 55%
Caracas weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 28°C and a low of 21°C. Rain expected: 67% of models agree, about 4.5 mm. Tomorrow: 28°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 5.4 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
28° 21°
100%5.4 mm
87%
Thu
5 Nov
28° 20°
100%8.4 mm
86%
Fri
6 Nov
27° 21°
100%8.8 mm
86%
Sat
7 Nov
27° 21°
89%5.1 mm
74%
Sun
8 Nov
27° 20°
71%5.7 mm
54%
Mon
9 Nov
29° 20°
43%0.6 mm
35%
Tue
10 Nov
29° 21°
50%0.6 mm
45%
Wed
11 Nov
28° 21°
40%0.3 mm
48%
Thu
12 Nov
28° 21°
60%1.5 mm
47%
Fri
13 Nov
28° 21°
75%3.8 mm
43%
Sat
14 Nov
28° 20°
100%5.4 mm
77%
Sun
15 Nov
28° 21°
67%2.7 mm
48%
Mon
16 Nov
28° 21°
67%1.8 mm
43%
Tue
17 Nov
29° 20°
100%1.2 mm
61%
Wed
18 Nov
29° 21°
50%1.4 mm
38%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Caracas
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Caracas on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Caracas
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 28°/21° · 4.5 mm | 28°/21° · 5.4 mm | 28°/20° · 8.4 mm | 27°/21° · 8.8 mm | 27°/21° · 5.1 mm | 27°/20° · 5.7 mm | 29°/20° · 0.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 27°/19° · 17 mm | 26°/20° · 11 mm | 26°/19° · 12 mm | 25°/19° · 8.8 mm | 25°/19° · 4.5 mm | 25°/20° · 11 mm | 27°/19° · 1.8 mm |
| AIFS | 27°/21° · 4.5 mm | 27°/22° · 7.2 mm | 27°/22° · 9.0 mm | 27°/22° · 9.3 mm | 27°/22° · 9.6 mm | 27°/22° · 7.5 mm | 29°/22° · 2.7 mm |
| GFS | 28°/20° · 6.7 mm | 28°/20° · 13 mm | 28°/20° · 9.1 mm | 26°/21° · 21 mm | 28°/21° · 11 mm | 29°/20° · 9.0 mm | 29°/21° · 3.9 mm |
| ICON | 28°/21° · 0.6 mm | 28°/21° · 2.0 mm | 28°/21° · 1.6 mm | 28°/21° · 1.5 mm | 28°/21° · 1.8 mm | 28°/21° · 3.0 mm | 29°/21° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 29°/19° · 4.3 mm | 28°/20° · 4.9 mm | 28°/20° · 6.4 mm | 28°/21° · 8.3 mm | 26°/20° · 10 mm | 26°/20° · 5.7 mm | 28°/20° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 28°/21° · 0.6 mm | 26°/21° · 1.2 mm | 26°/21° · 3.6 mm | 27°/21° · 1.8 mm | 27°/20° · 2.4 mm | 27°/20° · 0.6 mm | 28°/20° · 0.6 mm |
| ARPEGE | 28°/21° · 8.7 mm | 28°/21° · 11 mm | 28°/21° · 16 mm | 28°/21° · 9.9 mm | 27°/21° · 8.1 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 27°/18° · 0.8 mm | 28°/20° · 3.9 mm | 28°/20° · 1.0 mm | 28°/20° · 2.7 mm | 28°/20° · 0.3 mm | 29°/21° · 0.3 mm | 32°/20° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 26°/21° · 11 mm | 26°/21° · 5.4 mm | 27°/20° · 8.4 mm | 27°/21° · 13 mm | 25°/21° · 5.1 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 35/100. GFS brings 3.9 mm of rain while ICON has 0.0 mm; highs range from 27° (ECMWF) to 32° (UKMO). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Caracas weather: questions
Will it rain in Caracas tomorrow?
Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 5.4 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 5.4 mm, ranging from 1.2 mm to 13 mm.
When will it rain next in Caracas?
The next day most models agree on rain is Tuesday 3 November: 67% of models, about 4.5 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Caracas today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 27°C with 17 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 28°C with 6.7 mm. The median of all 9 models is 28°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Caracas?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Caracas forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 35/100): GFS forecasts 3.9 mm of rain while ICON forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:18 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology