Today
3 Nov
27° 18°
78%4.9 mm
47%
9 weather models · one stack
Medellín weather
Antioquia, Colombia
6.22°, -75.55° · 1469 m
Local time 20:17
Confidence 47%
Medellín weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 27°C and a low of 18°C. Rain expected: 78% of models agree, about 4.9 mm. Tomorrow: 25°C. Rain expected: 89% of models agree, about 7.4 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
25° 19°
89%7.4 mm
63%
Thu
5 Nov
25° 18°
100%17 mm
67%
Fri
6 Nov
25° 18°
100%15 mm
70%
Sat
7 Nov
24° 19°
100%9.7 mm
81%
Sun
8 Nov
26° 18°
71%4.6 mm
54%
Mon
9 Nov
27° 17°
43%0.6 mm
37%
Tue
10 Nov
29° 17°
17%0.2 mm
72%
Wed
11 Nov
28° 17°
40%0.6 mm
48%
Thu
12 Nov
27° 17°
60%2.2 mm
42%
Fri
13 Nov
27° 17°
100%5.6 mm
64%
Sat
14 Nov
28° 17°
100%9.4 mm
63%
Sun
15 Nov
24° 18°
100%11 mm
58%
Mon
16 Nov
23° 18°
100%13 mm
62%
Tue
17 Nov
23° 18°
100%9.2 mm
61%
Wed
18 Nov
24° 18°
100%4.9 mm
35%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Medellín
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Medellín on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Medellín
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 27°/18° · 4.9 mm | 25°/19° · 7.4 mm | 25°/18° · 17 mm | 25°/18° · 15 mm | 24°/19° · 9.7 mm | 26°/18° · 4.6 mm | 27°/17° · 0.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 28°/18° · 3.5 mm | 26°/17° · 12 mm | 26°/17° · 13 mm | 26°/18° · 13 mm | 24°/18° · 19 mm | 28°/16° · 5.6 mm | 29°/18° · 0.6 mm |
| AIFS | 23°/19° · 4.6 mm | 25°/18° · 7.4 mm | 25°/19° · 14 mm | 25°/19° · 15 mm | 25°/19° · 15 mm | 26°/18° · 8.2 mm | 28°/19° · 1.2 mm |
| GFS | 26°/16° · 7.8 mm | 23°/17° · 12 mm | 24°/16° · 17 mm | 23°/16° · 10 mm | 23°/18° · 9.6 mm | 25°/17° · 8.2 mm | 25°/17° · 3.3 mm |
| ICON | 28°/17° · 0.7 mm | 26°/19° · 2.0 mm | 26°/17° · 9.1 mm | 25°/18° · 6.6 mm | 25°/19° · 7.2 mm | 28°/18° · 0.0 mm | 29°/19° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 29°/17° · 4.9 mm | 25°/16° · 6.9 mm | 28°/14° · 72 mm | 26°/16° · 29 mm | 25°/17° · 8.2 mm | 26°/16° · 2.0 mm | 27°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 25°/17° · 7.6 mm | 24°/19° · 7.2 mm | 23°/18° · 18 mm | 23°/19° · 23 mm | 23°/19° · 52 mm | 25°/18° · 4.6 mm | 26°/17° · 1.2 mm |
| ARPEGE | 30°/19° · 0.0 mm | 29°/20° · 0.0 mm | 29°/20° · 7.5 mm | 29°/21° · 11 mm | 27°/21° · 5.1 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 27°/19° · 10 mm | 24°/19° · 9.3 mm | 25°/18° · 18 mm | 25°/17° · 19 mm | 24°/19° · 9.7 mm | 27°/18° · 0.0 mm | 26°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 25°/19° · 24 mm | 23°/19° · 45 mm | 22°/19° · 37 mm | 22°/19° · 55 mm | 23°/19° · 13 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 37/100. GFS brings 3.3 mm of rain while ICON has 0.0 mm; highs range from 25° (GFS) to 29° (ECMWF). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Medellín weather: questions
Will it rain in Medellín tomorrow?
Rain expected: 89% of models agree, about 7.4 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 7.4 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 45 mm.
When will it rain next in Medellín?
The next day most models agree on rain is Tuesday 3 November: 78% of models, about 4.9 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Medellín today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 28°C with 3.5 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 26°C with 7.8 mm. The median of all 9 models is 27°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Medellín?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Medellín forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 37/100): GFS forecasts 3.3 mm of rain while ICON forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:17 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology