Today
3 Nov
32° 27°
78%3.3 mm
49%
9 weather models · one stack
Manaus weather
Amazonas, Brazil
-3.13°, -60.02° · 30 m
Local time 21:14
Confidence 49%
Manaus weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 32°C and a low of 27°C. Rain expected: 78% of models agree, about 3.3 mm. Tomorrow: 33°C. Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.5 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
33° 26°
56%1.5 mm
25%
Thu
5 Nov
34° 27°
67%1.6 mm
29%
Fri
6 Nov
35° 27°
22%0.0 mm
37%
Sat
7 Nov
35° 26°
22%0.0 mm
40%
Sun
8 Nov
35° 27°
29%0.6 mm
36%
Mon
9 Nov
35° 27°
29%0.6 mm
34%
Tue
10 Nov
31° 26°
67%5.0 mm
39%
Wed
11 Nov
33° 25°
60%4.2 mm
14%
Thu
12 Nov
33° 26°
60%2.1 mm
27%
Fri
13 Nov
31° 26°
75%5.1 mm
27%
Sat
14 Nov
33° 27°
100%3.6 mm
75%
Sun
15 Nov
32° 26°
100%4.2 mm
89%
Mon
16 Nov
33° 26°
67%3.0 mm
36%
Tue
17 Nov
32° 26°
100%7.2 mm
78%
Wed
18 Nov
32° 25°
100%6.6 mm
55%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Manaus
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Manaus on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Manaus
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 32°/27° · 3.3 mm | 33°/26° · 1.5 mm | 34°/27° · 1.6 mm | 35°/27° · 0.0 mm | 35°/26° · 0.0 mm | 35°/27° · 0.6 mm | 35°/27° · 0.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 30°/26° · 3.3 mm | 31°/26° · 1.6 mm | 32°/27° · 2.8 mm | 32°/27° · 1.8 mm | 32°/26° · 3.8 mm | 32°/27° · 1.8 mm | 32°/27° · 0.6 mm |
| AIFS | 31°/25° · 6.3 mm | 33°/24° · 3.0 mm | 32°/25° · 3.3 mm | 34°/25° · 1.2 mm | 35°/26° · 0.6 mm | 36°/26° · 0.6 mm | 34°/26° · 1.8 mm |
| GFS | 35°/27° · 1.3 mm | 37°/26° · 0.8 mm | 37°/27° · 0.2 mm | 39°/27° · 0.0 mm | 39°/28° · 0.0 mm | 38°/28° · 0.3 mm | 38°/29° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 33°/27° · 0.9 mm | 32°/27° · 0.8 mm | 34°/28° · 1.6 mm | 35°/28° · 0.0 mm | 34°/28° · 0.0 mm | 34°/29° · 0.9 mm | 36°/28° · 0.3 mm |
| GEM | 34°/25° · 1.5 mm | 29°/24° · 15 mm | 31°/23° · 23 mm | 33°/22° · 0.0 mm | 35°/23° · 0.9 mm | 35°/23° · 0.6 mm | 35°/26° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 32°/25° · 14 mm | 31°/25° · 3.3 mm | 29°/25° · 7.8 mm | 32°/25° · 0.6 mm | 32°/26° · 2.4 mm | 31°/26° · 6.6 mm | 30°/25° · 1.5 mm |
| ARPEGE | 32°/27° · 5.4 mm | 35°/26° · 0.0 mm | 35°/27° · 1.2 mm | 38°/28° · 0.0 mm | 39°/29° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 32°/28° · 4.6 mm | 35°/27° · 0.2 mm | 36°/28° · 0.0 mm | 37°/29° · 0.0 mm | 38°/28° · 0.0 mm | 36°/30° · 0.3 mm | 37°/30° · 0.6 mm |
| CMA | 36°/27° · 0.3 mm | 35°/25° · 1.5 mm | 36°/26° · 0.0 mm | 38°/26° · 0.0 mm | 38°/24° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Wednesday
Confidence is only 25/100. GEM brings 15 mm of rain while ARPEGE has 0.0 mm; highs range from 29° (GEM) to 37° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Manaus weather: questions
Will it rain in Manaus tomorrow?
Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.5 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 1.5 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 15 mm.
When will it rain next in Manaus?
The next day most models agree on rain is Tuesday 3 November: 78% of models, about 3.3 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Manaus today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 30°C with 3.3 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 35°C with 1.3 mm. The median of all 9 models is 32°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Manaus?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Manaus forecast this week?
The least certain day is Wednesday (confidence 25/100): GEM forecasts 15 mm of rain while ARPEGE forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:28 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology