Today
4 Nov
27° 25°
67%1.8 mm
64%
9 weather models · one stack
Hong Kong weather
HK
22.32°, 114.20° · 52 m
Local time 09:17
Confidence 64%
Hong Kong weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 27°C and a low of 25°C. Rain expected: 67% of models agree, about 1.8 mm. Tomorrow: 28°C. A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 1.2 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
28° 25°
22%0.0 mm
72%
Fri
6 Nov
27° 25°
67%1.5 mm
62%
Sat
7 Nov
27° 24°
44%0.6 mm
48%
Sun
8 Nov
27° 24°
13%0.2 mm
78%
Mon
9 Nov
26° 20°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Tue
10 Nov
24° 18°
0%0.0 mm
75%
Wed
11 Nov
23° 18°
0%0.0 mm
80%
Thu
12 Nov
25° 21°
0%0.0 mm
86%
Fri
13 Nov
26° 22°
0%0.3 mm
94%
Sat
14 Nov
25° 23°
50%8.4 mm
39%
Sun
15 Nov
25° 22°
67%4.5 mm
65%
Mon
16 Nov
27° 23°
33%0.9 mm
43%
Tue
17 Nov
25° 23°
100%10 mm
82%
Wed
18 Nov
25° 23°
100%16 mm
71%
Thu
19 Nov
23° 14°
100%27 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Hong Kong
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Hong Kong on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Hong Kong
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 27°/25° · 1.8 mm | 28°/25° · 0.0 mm | 27°/25° · 1.5 mm | 27°/24° · 0.6 mm | 27°/24° · 0.2 mm | 26°/20° · 0.0 mm | 24°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 27°/24° · 4.5 mm | 28°/24° · 0.7 mm | 28°/23° · 3.1 mm | 27°/23° · 2.3 mm | 28°/24° · 0.6 mm | 28°/20° · 0.3 mm | 25°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 27°/25° · 2.1 mm | 28°/26° · 1.2 mm | 27°/25° · 2.1 mm | 27°/25° · 2.4 mm | 28°/25° · 1.5 mm | 26°/20° · 0.6 mm | 23°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 26°/25° · 5.5 mm | 28°/25° · 0.0 mm | 27°/25° · 0.1 mm | 26°/24° · 1.0 mm | 26°/24° · 0.0 mm | 26°/20° · 0.0 mm | 24°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 27°/25° · 0.0 mm | 29°/25° · 0.0 mm | 27°/25° · 0.0 mm | 26°/24° · 0.0 mm | 27°/24° · 0.0 mm | 25°/19° · 0.0 mm | 23°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 26°/25° · 1.3 mm | 28°/25° · 0.0 mm | 28°/25° · 1.0 mm | 27°/24° · 0.2 mm | 27°/24° · 0.3 mm | 25°/17° · 0.0 mm | 20°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 27°/25° · 0.0 mm | 29°/25° · 0.0 mm | 27°/25° · 0.0 mm | 28°/24° · 0.0 mm | 28°/24° · 0.0 mm | 27°/20° · 0.0 mm | 24°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 27°/26° · 9.7 mm | 28°/27° · 0.0 mm | 27°/26° · 3.6 mm | 27°/26° · 0.3 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 26°/24° · 1.8 mm | 28°/24° · 1.0 mm | 27°/22° · 1.5 mm | 26°/24° · 4.5 mm | 26°/24° · 0.3 mm | 29°/22° · 0.0 mm | 25°/19° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 27°/24° · 0.3 mm | 29°/24° · 0.0 mm | 26°/24° · 2.1 mm | 25°/23° · 0.6 mm | 26°/23° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 48/100. UKMO brings 4.5 mm of rain while ICON has 0.0 mm; highs range from 25° (CMA) to 28° (JMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Hong Kong weather: questions
Will it rain in Hong Kong tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 1.2 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 1.2 mm.
When will it rain next in Hong Kong?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 67% of models, about 1.8 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Hong Kong today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 27°C with 4.5 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 26°C with 5.5 mm. The median of all 9 models is 27°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Hong Kong?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Hong Kong forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 48/100): UKMO forecasts 4.5 mm of rain while ICON forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:17 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology