Today
4 Nov
28° 25°
33%0.6 mm
60%
9 weather models · one stack
Shenzhen weather
Guangdong, China
22.53°, 114.09° · 11 m
Local time 09:15
Confidence 60%
Shenzhen weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 28°C and a low of 25°C. A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 2.5 mm. Tomorrow: 30°C. A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 2.2 mm. Next likely rain: Saturday 14 November (50% of models, ~7.5 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
30° 24°
22%0.0 mm
67%
Fri
6 Nov
29° 25°
22%0.3 mm
61%
Sat
7 Nov
28° 24°
22%0.0 mm
62%
Sun
8 Nov
29° 24°
0%0.0 mm
84%
Mon
9 Nov
27° 20°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Tue
10 Nov
24° 18°
0%0.0 mm
72%
Wed
11 Nov
26° 17°
0%0.0 mm
78%
Thu
12 Nov
27° 20°
0%0.0 mm
90%
Fri
13 Nov
27° 21°
0%0.0 mm
86%
Sat
14 Nov
25° 22°
50%7.5 mm
30%
Sun
15 Nov
28° 21°
67%3.9 mm
51%
Mon
16 Nov
28° 22°
33%0.9 mm
46%
Tue
17 Nov
27° 22°
100%4.8 mm
83%
Wed
18 Nov
25° 23°
100%9.3 mm
62%
Thu
19 Nov
23° 13°
100%8.4 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Shenzhen
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Shenzhen on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Shenzhen
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 28°/25° · 0.6 mm | 30°/24° · 0.0 mm | 29°/25° · 0.3 mm | 28°/24° · 0.0 mm | 29°/24° · 0.0 mm | 27°/20° · 0.0 mm | 24°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 28°/23° · 2.0 mm | 30°/23° · 0.7 mm | 29°/23° · 1.2 mm | 28°/23° · 0.0 mm | 29°/24° · 0.0 mm | 28°/20° · 0.0 mm | 25°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 28°/25° · 2.1 mm | 29°/26° · 1.2 mm | 28°/25° · 1.5 mm | 28°/24° · 2.4 mm | 29°/25° · 0.6 mm | 26°/20° · 0.3 mm | 23°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 29°/25° · 0.3 mm | 31°/25° · 0.0 mm | 30°/25° · 0.0 mm | 29°/25° · 0.0 mm | 31°/24° · 0.0 mm | 28°/21° · 0.0 mm | 26°/19° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 28°/25° · 0.2 mm | 31°/24° · 0.0 mm | 28°/25° · 0.0 mm | 27°/23° · 0.0 mm | 28°/23° · 0.0 mm | 26°/18° · 0.0 mm | 23°/16° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 29°/24° · 0.7 mm | 31°/23° · 0.0 mm | 30°/23° · 0.6 mm | 29°/24° · 0.0 mm | 29°/24° · 0.0 mm | 26°/17° · 0.0 mm | 21°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 28°/25° · 0.0 mm | 29°/25° · 0.0 mm | 27°/25° · 0.0 mm | 28°/24° · 0.0 mm | 29°/24° · 0.0 mm | 27°/20° · 0.0 mm | 24°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 29°/25° · 0.6 mm | 32°/25° · 0.2 mm | 31°/26° · 0.3 mm | 30°/25° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 27°/24° · 2.5 mm | 29°/24° · 2.2 mm | 29°/23° · 0.9 mm | 27°/23° · 2.1 mm | 28°/23° · 0.0 mm | 29°/22° · 0.0 mm | 26°/20° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 27°/24° · 0.0 mm | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | 28°/23° · 0.0 mm | 26°/22° · 0.0 mm | 27°/22° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Wednesday
Confidence is only 60/100. UKMO brings 2.5 mm of rain while JMA has 0.0 mm; highs range from 27° (CMA) to 29° (ARPEGE). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Shenzhen weather: questions
Will it rain in Shenzhen tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 2.2 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 2.2 mm.
When will it rain next in Shenzhen?
The next day most models agree on rain is Saturday 14 November: 50% of models, about 7.5 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Shenzhen today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 28°C with 2.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 29°C with 0.3 mm. The median of all 9 models is 28°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Shenzhen?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Shenzhen forecast this week?
The least certain day is Wednesday (confidence 60/100): UKMO forecasts 2.5 mm of rain while JMA forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology