Today
3 Nov
29° 17°
0%0.0 mm
79%
9 weather models · one stack
Guadalajara weather
Jalisco, Mexico
20.70°, -103.36° · 1554 m
Local time 19:17
Confidence 79%
Guadalajara weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 29°C and a low of 17°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 29°C. Dry: no model shows rain. No day in the next 16 days where most models agree on rain.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
29° 16°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Thu
5 Nov
28° 14°
0%0.0 mm
85%
Fri
6 Nov
29° 13°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Sat
7 Nov
28° 14°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Sun
8 Nov
27° 14°
0%0.0 mm
73%
Mon
9 Nov
27° 14°
29%0.6 mm
48%
Tue
10 Nov
26° 15°
33%0.0 mm
50%
Wed
11 Nov
26° 15°
20%0.0 mm
65%
Thu
12 Nov
24° 15°
0%0.0 mm
78%
Fri
13 Nov
25° 13°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Sat
14 Nov
27° 13°
0%0.0 mm
76%
Sun
15 Nov
28° 13°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Mon
16 Nov
28° 14°
0%0.0 mm
85%
Tue
17 Nov
26° 13°
0%0.0 mm
91%
Wed
18 Nov
25° 13°
0%0.0 mm
67%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Guadalajara
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Guadalajara on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Guadalajara
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 29°/17° · 0.0 mm | 29°/16° · 0.0 mm | 28°/14° · 0.0 mm | 29°/13° · 0.0 mm | 28°/14° · 0.0 mm | 27°/14° · 0.0 mm | 27°/14° · 0.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 29°/18° · 0.0 mm | 29°/17° · 0.0 mm | 29°/15° · 0.0 mm | 30°/15° · 0.0 mm | 28°/16° · 0.0 mm | 27°/16° · 0.3 mm | 25°/16° · 3.5 mm |
| AIFS | 28°/17° · 0.0 mm | 29°/15° · 0.0 mm | 29°/15° · 0.0 mm | 29°/13° · 0.0 mm | 29°/13° · 0.0 mm | 28°/14° · 0.0 mm | 28°/14° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 30°/17° · 0.0 mm | 30°/16° · 0.0 mm | 28°/14° · 0.0 mm | 30°/13° · 0.0 mm | 30°/14° · 0.0 mm | 30°/13° · 0.0 mm | 28°/16° · 0.7 mm |
| ICON | 30°/17° · 0.0 mm | 30°/17° · 0.0 mm | 29°/14° · 0.0 mm | 29°/13° · 0.0 mm | 28°/15° · 0.0 mm | 28°/17° · 0.0 mm | 27°/18° · 0.6 mm |
| GEM | 30°/13° · 0.1 mm | 29°/11° · 0.0 mm | 28°/7° · 0.0 mm | 28°/6° · 0.0 mm | 27°/5° · 0.0 mm | 26°/7° · 0.0 mm | 27°/7° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 26°/16° · 0.0 mm | 27°/15° · 0.0 mm | 26°/14° · 0.0 mm | 26°/12° · 0.0 mm | 26°/11° · 0.0 mm | 24°/14° · 0.0 mm | 24°/13° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 30°/18° · 0.0 mm | 30°/18° · 0.0 mm | 29°/16° · 0.0 mm | 30°/16° · 0.0 mm | 29°/15° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 29°/13° · 0.0 mm | 29°/12° · 0.0 mm | 28°/10° · 0.0 mm | 28°/9° · 0.0 mm | 27°/9° · 0.0 mm | 27°/10° · 0.0 mm | 24°/12° · 8.6 mm |
| CMA | 28°/16° · 0.0 mm | 28°/16° · 0.0 mm | 27°/15° · 0.0 mm | 27°/13° · 0.0 mm | 26°/15° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 48/100. UKMO brings 8.6 mm of rain while AIFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 24° (UKMO) to 28° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Guadalajara weather: questions
Will it rain in Guadalajara tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Guadalajara?
No day in the next 16 days where most models agree on rain.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Guadalajara today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 29°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 30°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 29°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Guadalajara?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Guadalajara forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 48/100): UKMO forecasts 8.6 mm of rain while AIFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:17 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology