Today
3 Nov
30° 22°
33%0.4 mm
55%
9 weather models · one stack
Cancún weather
Quintana Roo, Mexico
21.20°, -86.89° · 9 m
Local time 20:16
Confidence 55%
Cancún weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 30°C and a low of 22°C. A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 3.6 mm. Tomorrow: 30°C. A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 3.6 mm. Next likely rain: Friday 6 November (56% of models, ~1.0 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
30° 22°
33%0.3 mm
57%
Thu
5 Nov
30° 22°
22%0.5 mm
65%
Fri
6 Nov
30° 24°
56%1.0 mm
47%
Sat
7 Nov
29° 24°
44%0.9 mm
51%
Sun
8 Nov
29° 24°
43%0.9 mm
51%
Mon
9 Nov
29° 24°
43%0.9 mm
54%
Tue
10 Nov
29° 24°
33%0.6 mm
54%
Wed
11 Nov
29° 23°
0%0.0 mm
88%
Thu
12 Nov
29° 21°
60%1.6 mm
53%
Fri
13 Nov
29° 21°
25%0.0 mm
63%
Sat
14 Nov
29° 23°
67%5.2 mm
57%
Sun
15 Nov
30° 23°
67%1.4 mm
53%
Mon
16 Nov
28° 22°
67%1.2 mm
56%
Tue
17 Nov
28° 23°
67%3.2 mm
42%
Wed
18 Nov
29° 23°
100%6.3 mm
64%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Cancún
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Cancún on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Cancún
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 30°/22° · 0.4 mm | 30°/22° · 0.3 mm | 30°/22° · 0.5 mm | 30°/24° · 1.0 mm | 29°/24° · 0.9 mm | 29°/24° · 0.9 mm | 29°/24° · 0.9 mm |
| ECMWF | 30°/21° · 2.7 mm | 30°/22° · 3.6 mm | 30°/22° · 0.5 mm | 30°/24° · 2.9 mm | 30°/24° · 1.1 mm | 29°/25° · 0.6 mm | 28°/25° · 1.8 mm |
| AIFS | 30°/22° · 0.6 mm | 30°/24° · 1.2 mm | 30°/24° · 0.6 mm | 30°/24° · 2.2 mm | 29°/24° · 3.2 mm | 30°/25° · 1.2 mm | 30°/24° · 1.2 mm |
| GFS | 30°/22° · 0.4 mm | 30°/22° · 0.1 mm | 30°/22° · 0.0 mm | 30°/23° · 2.6 mm | 29°/23° · 4.4 mm | 29°/23° · 1.4 mm | 29°/24° · 0.9 mm |
| ICON | 29°/23° · 0.4 mm | 30°/22° · 0.0 mm | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | 30°/24° · 0.9 mm | 30°/24° · 0.9 mm | 29°/24° · 1.2 mm |
| GEM | 31°/22° · 1.9 mm | 31°/22° · 0.0 mm | 32°/22° · 0.0 mm | 31°/25° · 0.1 mm | 30°/26° · 0.0 mm | 30°/27° · 0.0 mm | 29°/27° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 30°/20° · 0.0 mm | 30°/21° · 0.0 mm | 29°/21° · 0.6 mm | 29°/22° · 1.0 mm | 29°/23° · 4.4 mm | 28°/23° · 6.6 mm | 29°/23° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 28°/25° · 0.0 mm | 28°/27° · 0.3 mm | 28°/27° · 1.6 mm | 28°/27° · 0.3 mm | 28°/27° · 0.6 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 30°/21° · 0.2 mm | 30°/21° · 0.7 mm | 31°/21° · 0.4 mm | 29°/23° · 3.9 mm | 30°/24° · 0.0 mm | 29°/24° · 0.9 mm | 29°/24° · 0.6 mm |
| CMA | 31°/21° · 3.6 mm | 30°/24° · 2.1 mm | 30°/24° · 1.8 mm | 30°/24° · 0.0 mm | 29°/24° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Friday
Confidence is only 47/100. UKMO brings 3.9 mm of rain while ICON has 0.0 mm; highs range from 28° (ARPEGE) to 31° (GEM). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Cancún weather: questions
Will it rain in Cancún tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 3.6 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.3 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 3.6 mm.
When will it rain next in Cancún?
The next day most models agree on rain is Friday 6 November: 56% of models, about 1.0 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Cancún today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 30°C with 2.7 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 30°C with 0.4 mm. The median of all 9 models is 30°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Cancún?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Cancún forecast this week?
The least certain day is Friday (confidence 47/100): UKMO forecasts 3.9 mm of rain while ICON forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:16 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology