Today
3 Nov
26° 11°
0%0.0 mm
80%
9 weather models · one stack
Mexico City weather
Mexico City, Mexico
19.44°, -99.11° · 2233 m
Local time 19:17
Confidence 80%
Mexico City weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 26°C and a low of 11°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 25°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Sunday 8 November (86% of models, ~1.8 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
25° 12°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Thu
5 Nov
25° 13°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Fri
6 Nov
25° 13°
33%0.5 mm
46%
Sat
7 Nov
23° 13°
22%0.1 mm
52%
Sun
8 Nov
24° 13°
86%1.8 mm
69%
Mon
9 Nov
22° 12°
43%0.6 mm
44%
Tue
10 Nov
22° 12°
17%0.2 mm
67%
Wed
11 Nov
23° 12°
20%0.0 mm
61%
Thu
12 Nov
22° 11°
20%0.2 mm
57%
Fri
13 Nov
22° 12°
25%0.0 mm
59%
Sat
14 Nov
24° 10°
0%0.0 mm
79%
Sun
15 Nov
25° 11°
0%0.0 mm
78%
Mon
16 Nov
24° 12°
0%0.0 mm
88%
Tue
17 Nov
24° 11°
0%0.0 mm
64%
Wed
18 Nov
22° 12°
0%0.0 mm
46%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Mexico City
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Mexico City on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Mexico City
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 26°/11° · 0.0 mm | 25°/12° · 0.0 mm | 25°/13° · 0.0 mm | 25°/13° · 0.5 mm | 23°/13° · 0.1 mm | 24°/13° · 1.8 mm | 22°/12° · 0.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 27°/11° · 0.0 mm | 26°/12° · 0.0 mm | 26°/13° · 0.5 mm | 25°/12° · 1.4 mm | 23°/13° · 2.3 mm | 22°/13° · 8.2 mm | 20°/12° · 0.6 mm |
| AIFS | 25°/11° · 0.0 mm | 25°/12° · 0.0 mm | 26°/12° · 0.5 mm | 25°/13° · 1.2 mm | 24°/12° · 0.6 mm | 24°/13° · 4.5 mm | 22°/13° · 4.4 mm |
| GFS | 26°/17° · 0.0 mm | 25°/16° · 0.0 mm | 26°/17° · 0.0 mm | 25°/17° · 1.4 mm | 24°/15° · 0.1 mm | 24°/15° · 1.8 mm | 22°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 27°/10° · 0.0 mm | 26°/11° · 0.0 mm | 26°/13° · 0.0 mm | 25°/12° · 0.0 mm | 24°/12° · 0.0 mm | 24°/14° · 1.5 mm | 23°/14° · 1.5 mm |
| GEM | 26°/7° · 0.0 mm | 25°/7° · 0.0 mm | 25°/7° · 0.0 mm | 25°/5° · 0.0 mm | 25°/9° · 0.3 mm | 24°/9° · 5.0 mm | 22°/12° · 1.0 mm |
| JMA | 25°/9° · 0.0 mm | 24°/8° · 0.0 mm | 25°/9° · 0.0 mm | 24°/11° · 0.5 mm | 20°/14° · 0.1 mm | 21°/14° · 1.6 mm | 21°/12° · 0.2 mm |
| ARPEGE | 26°/12° · 0.0 mm | 24°/13° · 0.0 mm | 25°/14° · 0.0 mm | 24°/14° · 0.0 mm | 22°/13° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 26°/13° · 0.0 mm | 25°/14° · 0.0 mm | 25°/14° · 0.0 mm | 23°/15° · 0.0 mm | 23°/13° · 0.0 mm | 23°/13° · 0.3 mm | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 22°/14° · 0.0 mm | 22°/12° · 0.0 mm | 22°/13° · 0.0 mm | 20°/13° · 0.6 mm | 19°/11° · 2.7 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 44/100. AIFS brings 4.4 mm of rain while GFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 20° (ECMWF) to 23° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Mexico City weather: questions
Will it rain in Mexico City tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Mexico City?
The next day most models agree on rain is Sunday 8 November: 86% of models, about 1.8 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Mexico City today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 27°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 26°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 26°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Mexico City?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Mexico City forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 44/100): AIFS forecasts 4.4 mm of rain while GFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:17 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology