Today
4 Nov
31° 27°
56%1.2 mm
46%
9 weather models · one stack
Lagos weather
Lagos, Nigeria
6.43°, 3.39° · 7 m
Local time 02:14
Confidence 46%
Lagos weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 31°C and a low of 27°C. Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.2 mm. Tomorrow: 31°C. A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 2.0 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
31° 27°
22%0.0 mm
66%
Fri
6 Nov
31° 28°
44%0.1 mm
47%
Sat
7 Nov
31° 27°
22%0.0 mm
65%
Sun
8 Nov
31° 27°
29%0.9 mm
65%
Mon
9 Nov
31° 27°
57%1.2 mm
45%
Tue
10 Nov
31° 28°
83%5.5 mm
71%
Wed
11 Nov
30° 28°
80%4.0 mm
65%
Thu
12 Nov
30° 26°
80%3.6 mm
67%
Fri
13 Nov
29° 27°
50%1.4 mm
30%
Sat
14 Nov
30° 26°
50%0.7 mm
39%
Sun
15 Nov
30° 26°
67%1.2 mm
59%
Mon
16 Nov
30° 27°
67%1.8 mm
67%
Tue
17 Nov
31° 27°
100%3.6 mm
92%
Wed
18 Nov
31° 27°
100%1.5 mm
66%
Thu
19 Nov
31° 28°
0%0.9 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Lagos
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Lagos on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Lagos
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 31°/27° · 1.2 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/28° · 0.1 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/27° · 0.9 mm | 31°/27° · 1.2 mm | 31°/28° · 5.5 mm |
| ECMWF | 31°/27° · 1.2 mm | 31°/27° · 2.0 mm | 31°/27° · 1.0 mm | 31°/27° · 1.2 mm | 31°/27° · 0.9 mm | 31°/27° · 2.4 mm | 30°/25° · 9.0 mm |
| AIFS | 31°/26° · 1.8 mm | 31°/26° · 1.8 mm | 31°/27° · 1.2 mm | 31°/27° · 1.2 mm | 30°/26° · 3.4 mm | 30°/26° · 5.4 mm | 29°/26° · 9.0 mm |
| GFS | 32°/28° · 0.6 mm | 32°/28° · 0.5 mm | 32°/28° · 1.5 mm | 32°/28° · 0.4 mm | 31°/28° · 0.2 mm | 33°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/28° · 2.7 mm |
| ICON | 31°/28° · 3.8 mm | 32°/28° · 0.0 mm | 32°/28° · 0.1 mm | 32°/28° · 0.0 mm | 31°/29° · 0.9 mm | 32°/28° · 1.2 mm | 31°/28° · 2.4 mm |
| GEM | 30°/28° · 0.0 mm | 31°/28° · 0.0 mm | 31°/28° · 0.0 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/28° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 29°/27° · 2.0 mm | 29°/27° · 0.6 mm | 30°/28° · 1.2 mm | 30°/28° · 0.0 mm | 30°/28° · 1.0 mm | 29°/27° · 5.6 mm | 29°/27° · 8.2 mm |
| ARPEGE | 30°/28° · 0.0 mm | 30°/28° · 0.0 mm | 30°/28° · 0.0 mm | 30°/28° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 31°/26° · 1.7 mm | 32°/27° · 0.0 mm | 32°/27° · 0.0 mm | 33°/27° · 0.0 mm | 32°/27° · 0.0 mm | 32°/27° · 0.3 mm | - |
| CMA | 31°/25° · 0.0 mm | 31°/25° · 0.0 mm | 30°/26° · 0.0 mm | 31°/25° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 45/100. JMA brings 5.6 mm of rain while GFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 29° (JMA) to 33° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Lagos weather: questions
Will it rain in Lagos tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 2.0 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 2.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Lagos?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 56% of models, about 1.2 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Lagos today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 31°C with 1.2 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 32°C with 0.6 mm. The median of all 9 models is 31°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Lagos?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Lagos forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 45/100): JMA forecasts 5.6 mm of rain while GFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:38 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology