Today
4 Nov
33° 24°
0%0.0 mm
70%
9 weather models · one stack
Abuja weather
FCT, Nigeria
9.03°, 7.47° · 480 m
Local time 02:15
Confidence 70%
Abuja weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 33°C and a low of 24°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 34°C. Dry: no model shows rain. No day in the next 16 days where most models agree on rain.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
34° 23°
0%0.0 mm
59%
Fri
6 Nov
33° 23°
11%0.0 mm
59%
Sat
7 Nov
34° 23°
0%0.0 mm
75%
Sun
8 Nov
35° 24°
0%0.0 mm
72%
Mon
9 Nov
36° 24°
0%0.0 mm
73%
Tue
10 Nov
35° 24°
0%0.0 mm
72%
Wed
11 Nov
34° 24°
20%0.0 mm
48%
Thu
12 Nov
33° 24°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Fri
13 Nov
32° 24°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Sat
14 Nov
33° 24°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Sun
15 Nov
33° 25°
0%0.0 mm
90%
Mon
16 Nov
33° 24°
0%0.0 mm
84%
Tue
17 Nov
35° 24°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Wed
18 Nov
35° 24°
0%0.0 mm
61%
Thu
19 Nov
35° 25°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Abuja
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Abuja on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Abuja
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 33°/24° · 0.0 mm | 34°/23° · 0.0 mm | 33°/23° · 0.0 mm | 34°/23° · 0.0 mm | 35°/24° · 0.0 mm | 36°/24° · 0.0 mm | 35°/24° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 31°/24° · 0.1 mm | 32°/23° · 0.0 mm | 31°/23° · 0.0 mm | 35°/23° · 0.0 mm | 34°/25° · 0.0 mm | 36°/25° · 0.0 mm | 34°/24° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 33°/24° · 0.0 mm | 34°/23° · 0.0 mm | 33°/24° · 0.0 mm | 34°/24° · 0.0 mm | 34°/24° · 0.0 mm | 34°/24° · 0.6 mm | 34°/24° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 35°/25° · 0.0 mm | 37°/25° · 0.0 mm | 35°/24° · 0.2 mm | 35°/23° · 0.0 mm | 36°/24° · 0.0 mm | 37°/25° · 0.0 mm | 37°/27° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 33°/23° · 0.0 mm | 37°/22° · 0.0 mm | 33°/23° · 0.0 mm | 34°/23° · 0.0 mm | 36°/23° · 0.0 mm | 37°/24° · 0.0 mm | 36°/22° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 36°/21° · 0.0 mm | 38°/22° · 0.0 mm | 37°/21° · 1.0 mm | 37°/23° · 0.0 mm | 37°/22° · 0.0 mm | 37°/23° · 0.6 mm | 38°/23° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 30°/25° · 0.0 mm | 32°/24° · 0.0 mm | 30°/25° · 0.0 mm | 31°/24° · 0.0 mm | 31°/24° · 0.0 mm | 33°/24° · 0.0 mm | 33°/25° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | 31°/23° · 0.0 mm | 32°/23° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 33°/22° · 0.0 mm | 36°/20° · 0.0 mm | 35°/21° · 0.0 mm | 36°/22° · 0.0 mm | 35°/22° · 0.0 mm | 36°/23° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 33°/24° · 0.0 mm | 34°/25° · 0.0 mm | 33°/25° · 0.0 mm | 34°/25° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Thursday
Confidence is only 59/100. ECMWF brings 0.0 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 30° (ARPEGE) to 38° (GEM). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Abuja weather: questions
Will it rain in Abuja tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Abuja?
No day in the next 16 days where most models agree on rain.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Abuja today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 31°C with 0.1 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 35°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 33°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Abuja?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Abuja forecast this week?
The least certain day is Thursday (confidence 59/100): ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:48 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology