Today
4 Nov
19° 11°
0%0.0 mm
80%
9 weather models · one stack
Lisbon weather
Lisbon District, Portugal
38.70°, -9.20° · 54 m
Local time 01:14
Confidence 80%
Lisbon weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 19°C and a low of 11°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 18°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Friday 6 November (56% of models, ~1.7 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
18° 10°
0%0.0 mm
90%
Fri
6 Nov
19° 11°
56%1.7 mm
41%
Sat
7 Nov
20° 16°
78%9.6 mm
62%
Sun
8 Nov
20° 17°
100%21 mm
94%
Mon
9 Nov
20° 18°
100%27 mm
86%
Tue
10 Nov
19° 16°
100%18 mm
88%
Wed
11 Nov
19° 16°
100%6.7 mm
90%
Thu
12 Nov
19° 15°
100%8.9 mm
84%
Fri
13 Nov
17° 15°
100%5.5 mm
93%
Sat
14 Nov
18° 14°
25%0.7 mm
64%
Sun
15 Nov
18° 13°
33%0.0 mm
62%
Mon
16 Nov
19° 14°
0%0.0 mm
84%
Tue
17 Nov
19° 15°
0%0.0 mm
71%
Wed
18 Nov
20° 15°
0%0.0 mm
67%
Thu
19 Nov
21° 16°
0%0.3 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Lisbon
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Lisbon on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Lisbon
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 19°/11° · 1.7 mm | 20°/16° · 9.6 mm | 20°/17° · 21 mm | 20°/18° · 27 mm | 19°/16° · 18 mm |
| ECMWF | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 18°/9° · 0.0 mm | 21°/11° · 1.7 mm | 20°/16° · 9.6 mm | 21°/17° · 26 mm | 19°/17° · 22 mm | 19°/16° · 15 mm |
| AIFS | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | 17°/13° · 6.2 mm | 20°/16° · 2.2 mm | 20°/17° · 19 mm | 20°/18° · 27 mm | 18°/17° · 19 mm |
| GFS | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 18°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 0.2 mm | 23°/15° · 0.0 mm | 20°/17° · 15 mm | 19°/18° · 26 mm | 19°/16° · 59 mm |
| ICON | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | 19°/10° · 0.0 mm | 18°/13° · 6.0 mm | 20°/17° · 28 mm | 20°/18° · 14 mm | 21°/18° · 29 mm | 18°/15° · 16 mm |
| GEM | 20°/8° · 0.0 mm | 18°/5° · 0.0 mm | 20°/7° · 0.9 mm | 20°/15° · 0.0 mm | 20°/17° · 25 mm | 18°/17° · 82 mm | 17°/15° · 11 mm |
| JMA | 18°/9° · 0.0 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | 19°/11° · 6.1 mm | 20°/17° · 19 mm | 21°/17° · 21 mm | 20°/18° · 15 mm | 19°/18° · 28 mm |
| ARPEGE | 19°/13° · 0.0 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 20°/12° · 0.6 mm | 18°/15° · 25 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 20°/10° · 0.0 mm | 19°/10° · 0.0 mm | 20°/11° · 0.0 mm | 19°/17° · 32 mm | 20°/18° · 23 mm | 21°/17° · 32 mm | - |
| CMA | 17°/11° · 0.0 mm | 17°/9° · 0.0 mm | 18°/11° · 6.0 mm | 21°/14° · 1.3 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Friday
Confidence is only 41/100. AIFS brings 6.2 mm of rain while UKMO has 0.0 mm; highs range from 17° (AIFS) to 21° (ECMWF). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Lisbon weather: questions
Will it rain in Lisbon tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Lisbon?
The next day most models agree on rain is Friday 6 November: 56% of models, about 1.7 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Lisbon today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 20°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 20°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 19°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Lisbon?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Lisbon forecast this week?
The least certain day is Friday (confidence 41/100): AIFS forecasts 6.2 mm of rain while UKMO forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology