Today
4 Nov
14° 4°
0%0.0 mm
87%
9 weather models · one stack
Madrid weather
Madrid, Spain
40.39°, -3.68° · 660 m
Local time 02:14
Confidence 87%
Madrid weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 14°C and a low of 4°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 15°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Sunday 8 November (71% of models, ~6.1 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
15° 4°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Fri
6 Nov
15° 3°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Sat
7 Nov
15° 8°
33%0.0 mm
40%
Sun
8 Nov
14° 11°
71%6.1 mm
58%
Mon
9 Nov
16° 13°
100%23 mm
89%
Tue
10 Nov
17° 12°
100%13 mm
87%
Wed
11 Nov
16° 12°
100%8.0 mm
84%
Thu
12 Nov
14° 11°
100%8.4 mm
70%
Fri
13 Nov
13° 11°
100%9.1 mm
75%
Sat
14 Nov
14° 10°
75%3.1 mm
66%
Sun
15 Nov
14° 8°
33%0.6 mm
42%
Mon
16 Nov
14° 6°
33%0.0 mm
50%
Tue
17 Nov
16° 7°
0%0.0 mm
58%
Wed
18 Nov
17° 8°
0%0.0 mm
64%
Thu
19 Nov
16° 12°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Madrid
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Madrid on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Madrid
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 14°/4° · 0.0 mm | 15°/4° · 0.0 mm | 15°/3° · 0.0 mm | 15°/8° · 0.0 mm | 14°/11° · 6.1 mm | 16°/13° · 23 mm | 17°/12° · 13 mm |
| ECMWF | 14°/3° · 0.0 mm | 15°/4° · 0.0 mm | 16°/4° · 0.0 mm | 15°/8° · 0.0 mm | 14°/7° · 0.3 mm | 16°/12° · 20 mm | 17°/12° · 12 mm |
| AIFS | 13°/1° · 0.0 mm | 14°/2° · 0.0 mm | 14°/1° · 0.0 mm | 15°/8° · 1.8 mm | 14°/7° · 1.6 mm | 16°/13° · 26 mm | 17°/14° · 23 mm |
| GFS | 14°/7° · 0.0 mm | 16°/9° · 0.0 mm | 16°/9° · 0.0 mm | 16°/10° · 0.0 mm | 13°/12° · 0.8 mm | 14°/12° · 16 mm | 16°/13° · 7.5 mm |
| ICON | 14°/4° · 0.0 mm | 16°/4° · 0.0 mm | 15°/2° · 0.4 mm | 11°/8° · 11 mm | 14°/11° · 7.8 mm | 16°/12° · 27 mm | 17°/11° · 13 mm |
| GEM | 15°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 15°/-2° · 0.0 mm | 15°/-5° · 0.0 mm | 18°/1° · 0.0 mm | 14°/6° · 6.1 mm | 16°/13° · 21 mm | 15°/12° · 32 mm |
| JMA | 13°/4° · 0.0 mm | 15°/3° · 0.0 mm | 15°/2° · 0.0 mm | 13°/8° · 5.4 mm | 14°/11° · 10 mm | 15°/13° · 23 mm | 16°/14° · 11 mm |
| ARPEGE | 15°/6° · 0.0 mm | 16°/7° · 0.0 mm | 15°/3° · 0.0 mm | 12°/7° · 0.9 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 13°/3° · 0.0 mm | 14°/5° · 0.0 mm | 14°/5° · 0.0 mm | 15°/6° · 0.0 mm | 17°/11° · 20 mm | 15°/14° · 25 mm | - |
| CMA | 12°/4° · 0.0 mm | 13°/6° · 0.0 mm | 12°/4° · 0.0 mm | 13°/6° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 40/100. ICON brings 11 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 11° (ICON) to 18° (GEM). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Madrid weather: questions
Will it rain in Madrid tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Madrid?
The next day most models agree on rain is Sunday 8 November: 71% of models, about 6.1 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Madrid today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 14°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 14°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 14°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Madrid?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Madrid forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 40/100): ICON forecasts 11 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:49 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology