Today
4 Nov
13° 7°
67%1.1 mm
54%
9 weather models · one stack
Bilbao weather
Basque Country, Spain
43.27°, -2.96° · 19 m
Local time 02:15
Confidence 54%
Bilbao weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 13°C and a low of 7°C. Rain expected: 67% of models agree, about 1.1 mm. Tomorrow: 16°C. Dry: no model shows rain.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
16° 6°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Fri
6 Nov
18° 5°
0%0.0 mm
80%
Sat
7 Nov
17° 8°
22%0.0 mm
46%
Sun
8 Nov
18° 11°
71%1.2 mm
63%
Mon
9 Nov
19° 15°
71%2.7 mm
52%
Tue
10 Nov
23° 18°
33%0.4 mm
61%
Wed
11 Nov
21° 16°
60%3.8 mm
54%
Thu
12 Nov
18° 13°
80%8.2 mm
51%
Fri
13 Nov
18° 12°
50%1.0 mm
5%
Sat
14 Nov
16° 12°
75%4.4 mm
34%
Sun
15 Nov
13° 12°
67%4.4 mm
56%
Mon
16 Nov
17° 9°
33%0.2 mm
39%
Tue
17 Nov
16° 8°
33%0.9 mm
26%
Wed
18 Nov
17° 10°
0%0.2 mm
66%
Thu
19 Nov
18° 14°
0%0.3 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Bilbao
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Bilbao on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Bilbao
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 13°/7° · 1.1 mm | 16°/6° · 0.0 mm | 18°/5° · 0.0 mm | 17°/8° · 0.0 mm | 18°/11° · 1.2 mm | 19°/15° · 2.7 mm | 23°/18° · 0.4 mm |
| ECMWF | 12°/7° · 1.9 mm | 16°/4° · 0.0 mm | 18°/3° · 0.0 mm | 16°/6° · 1.8 mm | 18°/10° · 1.2 mm | 21°/14° · 2.7 mm | 23°/18° · 0.6 mm |
| AIFS | 13°/9° · 1.4 mm | 16°/6° · 0.0 mm | 17°/6° · 0.0 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | 18°/12° · 1.0 mm | 20°/18° · 3.0 mm | 23°/19° · 2.6 mm |
| GFS | 14°/8° · 1.0 mm | 18°/6° · 0.0 mm | 18°/7° · 0.0 mm | 19°/9° · 0.0 mm | 19°/11° · 1.2 mm | 18°/12° · 0.0 mm | 23°/16° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 13°/7° · 0.7 mm | 16°/3° · 0.0 mm | 18°/2° · 0.0 mm | 16°/8° · 0.0 mm | 17°/11° · 3.9 mm | 19°/13° · 1.5 mm | 22°/15° · 1.0 mm |
| GEM | 12°/7° · 4.7 mm | 15°/4° · 0.0 mm | 17°/2° · 0.0 mm | 18°/6° · 0.0 mm | 17°/13° · 0.0 mm | 22°/15° · 0.3 mm | 23°/20° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 13°/13° · 1.8 mm | 14°/10° · 0.6 mm | 14°/10° · 0.6 mm | 16°/12° · 0.0 mm | 19°/15° · 0.0 mm | 19°/16° · 4.0 mm | 22°/18° · 0.2 mm |
| ARPEGE | 15°/9° · 0.2 mm | 18°/8° · 0.0 mm | 19°/5° · 0.0 mm | 18°/8° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 12°/6° · 1.1 mm | 16°/4° · 0.0 mm | 17°/4° · 0.0 mm | 12°/7° · 9.0 mm | 19°/9° · 5.8 mm | 19°/16° · 7.4 mm | - |
| CMA | 14°/6° · 0.0 mm | 17°/6° · 0.0 mm | 18°/6° · 0.0 mm | 20°/9° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 46/100. UKMO brings 9.0 mm of rain while AIFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 12° (UKMO) to 20° (CMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Bilbao weather: questions
Will it rain in Bilbao tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.6 mm.
When will it rain next in Bilbao?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 67% of models, about 1.1 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Bilbao today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 12°C with 1.9 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 14°C with 1.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 13°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Bilbao?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Bilbao forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 46/100): UKMO forecasts 9.0 mm of rain while AIFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology