Today
4 Nov
16° 12°
44%0.4 mm
49%
9 weather models · one stack
Valencia weather
Valencia, Spain
39.47°, -0.37° · 19 m
Local time 02:16
Confidence 49%
Valencia weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 16°C and a low of 12°C. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 4.3 mm. Tomorrow: 19°C. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 4.5 mm. Next likely rain: Monday 9 November (57% of models, ~1.4 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
19° 13°
44%0.9 mm
45%
Fri
6 Nov
20° 11°
0%0.0 mm
85%
Sat
7 Nov
19° 12°
0%0.0 mm
93%
Sun
8 Nov
19° 14°
14%0.0 mm
81%
Mon
9 Nov
20° 14°
57%1.4 mm
48%
Tue
10 Nov
24° 15°
33%0.5 mm
55%
Wed
11 Nov
23° 17°
40%0.0 mm
49%
Thu
12 Nov
22° 16°
40%0.6 mm
38%
Fri
13 Nov
21° 15°
50%7.4 mm
17%
Sat
14 Nov
19° 14°
75%1.2 mm
52%
Sun
15 Nov
19° 12°
33%0.0 mm
52%
Mon
16 Nov
19° 10°
33%0.0 mm
43%
Tue
17 Nov
20° 10°
33%0.0 mm
36%
Wed
18 Nov
21° 11°
0%0.0 mm
54%
Thu
19 Nov
20° 13°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Valencia
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Valencia on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Valencia
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 16°/12° · 0.4 mm | 19°/13° · 0.9 mm | 20°/11° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | 19°/14° · 0.0 mm | 20°/14° · 1.4 mm | 24°/15° · 0.5 mm |
| ECMWF | 16°/12° · 0.0 mm | 19°/13° · 0.6 mm | 20°/10° · 0.0 mm | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 21°/14° · 0.3 mm | 22°/16° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 16°/11° · 2.4 mm | 20°/12° · 1.8 mm | 20°/9° · 0.0 mm | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 20°/15° · 1.8 mm | 24°/15° · 0.4 mm |
| GFS | 15°/12° · 1.8 mm | 18°/14° · 0.9 mm | 23°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/16° · 0.0 mm | 19°/15° · 0.0 mm | 24°/15° · 0.2 mm |
| ICON | 16°/13° · 0.1 mm | 19°/13° · 2.2 mm | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/15° · 0.6 mm | 19°/13° · 0.3 mm | 18°/12° · 6.3 mm | 25°/14° · 0.6 mm |
| GEM | 15°/12° · 0.4 mm | 19°/12° · 4.5 mm | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 19°/14° · 0.0 mm | 21°/14° · 4.8 mm | 23°/15° · 1.8 mm |
| JMA | 16°/13° · 0.0 mm | 18°/14° · 2.8 mm | 20°/10° · 0.2 mm | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | 19°/16° · 1.6 mm | 19°/14° · 1.4 mm | 24°/15° · 1.2 mm |
| ARPEGE | 18°/14° · 4.3 mm | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | 20°/10° · 0.0 mm | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 17°/11° · 0.0 mm | 20°/11° · 0.1 mm | 20°/11° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | 20°/16° · 0.6 mm | - |
| CMA | 17°/13° · 1.5 mm | 21°/12° · 0.0 mm | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 20°/11° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Thursday
Confidence is only 45/100. GEM brings 4.5 mm of rain while ARPEGE has 0.0 mm; highs range from 18° (JMA) to 21° (CMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Valencia weather: questions
Will it rain in Valencia tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 4.5 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.9 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 4.5 mm.
When will it rain next in Valencia?
The next day most models agree on rain is Monday 9 November: 57% of models, about 1.4 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Valencia today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 16°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 15°C with 1.8 mm. The median of all 9 models is 16°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Valencia?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Valencia forecast this week?
The least certain day is Thursday (confidence 45/100): GEM forecasts 4.5 mm of rain while ARPEGE forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:16 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology