Today
4 Nov
9° 4°
78%4.2 mm
63%
9 weather models · one stack
Toulouse weather
Occitanie, France
43.62°, 1.49° · 145 m
Local time 02:18
Confidence 63%
Toulouse weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 9°C and a low of 4°C. Rain expected: 78% of models agree, about 4.2 mm. Tomorrow: 14°C. Dry: only 11% of models show rain.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
14° 5°
11%0.0 mm
70%
Fri
6 Nov
14° 4°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Sat
7 Nov
15° 3°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Sun
8 Nov
18° 10°
0%0.0 mm
86%
Mon
9 Nov
21° 13°
14%0.0 mm
62%
Tue
10 Nov
22° 15°
50%0.6 mm
14%
Wed
11 Nov
20° 14°
20%0.4 mm
68%
Thu
12 Nov
16° 11°
60%1.6 mm
19%
Fri
13 Nov
17° 11°
25%0.3 mm
26%
Sat
14 Nov
16° 10°
50%0.7 mm
0%
Sun
15 Nov
13° 9°
67%5.6 mm
32%
Mon
16 Nov
12° 9°
33%0.0 mm
56%
Tue
17 Nov
16° 7°
33%0.0 mm
25%
Wed
18 Nov
15° 7°
50%2.4 mm
36%
Thu
19 Nov
13° 10°
0%0.6 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Toulouse
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Toulouse on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Toulouse
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 9°/4° · 4.2 mm | 14°/5° · 0.0 mm | 14°/4° · 0.0 mm | 15°/3° · 0.0 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm | 22°/15° · 0.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 8°/3° · 7.4 mm | 12°/3° · 0.0 mm | 13°/4° · 0.0 mm | 11°/4° · 0.0 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/16° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 8°/4° · 4.2 mm | 12°/5° · 0.0 mm | 14°/3° · 0.0 mm | 15°/2° · 0.0 mm | 18°/7° · 0.0 mm | 21°/14° · 1.0 mm | 24°/15° · 1.2 mm |
| GFS | 8°/6° · 8.7 mm | 16°/6° · 0.0 mm | 16°/8° · 0.0 mm | 17°/9° · 0.0 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | 20°/12° · 0.1 mm | 19°/15° · 0.2 mm |
| ICON | 10°/4° · 0.2 mm | 13°/2° · 0.0 mm | 12°/3° · 0.0 mm | 15°/3° · 0.7 mm | 19°/11° · 0.5 mm | 21°/10° · 0.0 mm | 24°/15° · 2.1 mm |
| GEM | 11°/0° · 1.0 mm | 14°/2° · 0.0 mm | 15°/3° · 0.0 mm | 15°/-1° · 0.0 mm | 20°/9° · 0.0 mm | 25°/15° · 0.0 mm | 26°/15° · 1.0 mm |
| JMA | 9°/6° · 3.6 mm | 13°/4° · 0.0 mm | 14°/4° · 0.0 mm | 16°/2° · 0.0 mm | 18°/11° · 0.4 mm | 19°/13° · 0.2 mm | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 10°/4° · 6.7 mm | 14°/7° · 0.0 mm | 12°/4° · 0.0 mm | 15°/3° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 9°/5° · 5.2 mm | 14°/6° · 0.1 mm | 15°/6° · 0.0 mm | 17°/5° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | 22°/17° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 11°/6° · 0.6 mm | 15°/8° · 3.0 mm | 14°/7° · 0.0 mm | 15°/7° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 14/100. ICON brings 2.1 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 19° (GFS) to 26° (GEM). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Toulouse weather: questions
Will it rain in Toulouse tomorrow?
Dry: only 11% of models show rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 3.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Toulouse?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 78% of models, about 4.2 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Toulouse today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 8°C with 7.4 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 8°C with 8.7 mm. The median of all 9 models is 9°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Toulouse?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Toulouse forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 14/100): ICON forecasts 2.1 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:17 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology