Today
4 Nov
9° 3°
22%0.1 mm
66%
9 weather models · one stack
Lyon weather
Rhône-Alpes, France
45.73°, 4.83° · 176 m
Local time 02:14
Confidence 66%
Lyon weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 9°C and a low of 3°C. A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 2.0 mm. Tomorrow: 11°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 4.6 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
11° 6°
100%4.6 mm
81%
Fri
6 Nov
11° 7°
100%9.3 mm
82%
Sat
7 Nov
10° 6°
11%0.0 mm
61%
Sun
8 Nov
14° 5°
86%1.2 mm
72%
Mon
9 Nov
16° 12°
86%4.8 mm
60%
Tue
10 Nov
18° 14°
83%12 mm
61%
Wed
11 Nov
17° 11°
100%15 mm
80%
Thu
12 Nov
13° 11°
80%4.7 mm
35%
Fri
13 Nov
13° 8°
25%0.2 mm
36%
Sat
14 Nov
10° 7°
25%0.0 mm
27%
Sun
15 Nov
7° 4°
0%0.0 mm
64%
Mon
16 Nov
10° 3°
0%0.0 mm
45%
Tue
17 Nov
10° 2°
33%0.0 mm
24%
Wed
18 Nov
12° 6°
50%0.9 mm
28%
Thu
19 Nov
10° 7°
100%6.3 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Lyon
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Lyon on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Lyon
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 9°/3° · 0.1 mm | 11°/6° · 4.6 mm | 11°/7° · 9.3 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 14°/5° · 1.2 mm | 16°/12° · 4.8 mm | 18°/14° · 12 mm |
| ECMWF | 8°/2° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 16 mm | 11°/5° · 2.5 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 13°/4° · 8.1 mm | 16°/12° · 1.5 mm | 18°/15° · 0.6 mm |
| AIFS | 7°/1° · 2.0 mm | 9°/4° · 12 mm | 11°/7° · 6.2 mm | 10°/4° · 0.0 mm | 13°/3° · 1.0 mm | 16°/12° · 6.8 mm | 18°/14° · 9.6 mm |
| GFS | 9°/5° · 0.1 mm | 10°/6° · 3.4 mm | 13°/8° · 9.2 mm | 13°/7° · 0.0 mm | 16°/6° · 0.1 mm | 13°/10° · 6.2 mm | 14°/11° · 13 mm |
| ICON | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 11°/7° · 8.6 mm | 10°/8° · 14 mm | 14°/7° · 0.0 mm | 14°/8° · 8.8 mm | 19°/10° · 6.8 mm | 19°/15° · 14 mm |
| GEM | 9°/-2° · 0.9 mm | 11°/2° · 4.6 mm | 10°/6° · 12 mm | 10°/3° · 0.0 mm | 13°/2° · 1.2 mm | 18°/12° · 0.6 mm | 18°/15° · 12 mm |
| JMA | 10°/3° · 0.6 mm | 11°/6° · 8.4 mm | 10°/7° · 17 mm | 10°/6° · 0.0 mm | 15°/5° · 1.0 mm | 16°/12° · 4.8 mm | 18°/13° · 35 mm |
| ARPEGE | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm | 13°/5° · 3.3 mm | 9°/7° · 11 mm | 8°/6° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 11°/5° · 0.0 mm | 13°/7° · 1.4 mm | 12°/8° · 1.0 mm | 10°/6° · 1.1 mm | 15°/10° · 10 mm | 17°/14° · 2.2 mm | - |
| CMA | 9°/4° · 1.8 mm | 12°/6° · 3.6 mm | 12°/8° · 9.3 mm | 12°/6° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 60/100. AIFS brings 6.8 mm of rain while GEM has 0.6 mm; highs range from 13° (GFS) to 19° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Lyon weather: questions
Will it rain in Lyon tomorrow?
Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 4.6 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 4.6 mm, ranging from 1.4 mm to 16 mm.
When will it rain next in Lyon?
The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 5 November: 100% of models, about 4.6 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Lyon today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 8°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 9°C with 0.1 mm. The median of all 9 models is 9°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Lyon?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Lyon forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 60/100): AIFS forecasts 6.8 mm of rain while GEM forecasts 0.6 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology