Today
4 Nov
27° 15°
67%1.6 mm
47%
9 weather models · one stack
Kigali weather
Kigali, Rwanda
-1.93°, 30.07° · 1538 m
Local time 03:16
Confidence 47%
Kigali weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 27°C and a low of 15°C. Rain expected: 67% of models agree, about 1.6 mm. Tomorrow: 27°C. Rain expected: 78% of models agree, about 2.4 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
27° 16°
78%2.4 mm
60%
Fri
6 Nov
26° 16°
44%0.9 mm
40%
Sat
7 Nov
27° 16°
56%1.2 mm
34%
Sun
8 Nov
27° 16°
57%2.7 mm
41%
Mon
9 Nov
26° 16°
57%1.8 mm
41%
Tue
10 Nov
26° 16°
83%5.6 mm
58%
Wed
11 Nov
27° 16°
100%9.0 mm
78%
Thu
12 Nov
24° 16°
100%10 mm
82%
Fri
13 Nov
22° 17°
100%6.2 mm
67%
Sat
14 Nov
24° 17°
100%8.3 mm
68%
Sun
15 Nov
25° 17°
100%6.6 mm
82%
Mon
16 Nov
25° 17°
100%9.3 mm
78%
Tue
17 Nov
24° 16°
100%8.7 mm
76%
Wed
18 Nov
22° 17°
100%13 mm
52%
Thu
19 Nov
24° 15°
100%4.8 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Kigali
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Kigali on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Kigali
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 27°/15° · 1.6 mm | 27°/16° · 2.4 mm | 26°/16° · 0.9 mm | 27°/16° · 1.2 mm | 27°/16° · 2.7 mm | 26°/16° · 1.8 mm | 26°/16° · 5.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 27°/14° · 2.2 mm | 26°/16° · 4.8 mm | 26°/16° · 5.8 mm | 26°/15° · 13 mm | 26°/14° · 2.7 mm | 26°/14° · 5.1 mm | 26°/15° · 6.0 mm |
| AIFS | 27°/15° · 1.8 mm | 27°/17° · 2.4 mm | 26°/17° · 2.4 mm | 24°/16° · 4.8 mm | 24°/16° · 3.6 mm | 26°/16° · 3.0 mm | 25°/17° · 6.3 mm |
| GFS | 29°/16° · 1.0 mm | 29°/16° · 5.3 mm | 29°/16° · 0.9 mm | 28°/16° · 0.8 mm | 28°/16° · 7.0 mm | 27°/15° · 0.9 mm | 28°/15° · 5.1 mm |
| ICON | 27°/16° · 5.2 mm | 28°/17° · 2.5 mm | 29°/17° · 2.1 mm | 25°/18° · 6.6 mm | 26°/17° · 6.0 mm | 25°/17° · 4.2 mm | 26°/17° · 3.6 mm |
| GEM | 25°/13° · 0.2 mm | 27°/15° · 0.0 mm | 27°/15° · 0.2 mm | 27°/14° · 0.0 mm | 27°/14° · 0.0 mm | 25°/16° · 1.8 mm | 22°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 25°/14° · 0.3 mm | 25°/16° · 1.8 mm | 26°/16° · 0.6 mm | 29°/17° · 0.3 mm | 27°/16° · 0.9 mm | 24°/16° · 0.9 mm | 26°/16° · 6.3 mm |
| ARPEGE | 29°/17° · 0.0 mm | 27°/19° · 0.0 mm | 29°/18° · 0.0 mm | 29°/19° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 27°/14° · 1.6 mm | 26°/16° · 1.2 mm | 26°/15° · 3.6 mm | 27°/14° · 1.2 mm | 27°/14° · 0.3 mm | 28°/15° · 0.3 mm | - |
| CMA | 27°/17° · 11 mm | 25°/18° · 3.3 mm | 26°/17° · 0.0 mm | 28°/18° · 8.1 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 34/100. ECMWF brings 13 mm of rain while GEM has 0.0 mm; highs range from 24° (AIFS) to 29° (JMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Kigali weather: questions
Will it rain in Kigali tomorrow?
Rain expected: 78% of models agree, about 2.4 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 2.4 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 5.3 mm.
When will it rain next in Kigali?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 67% of models, about 1.6 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Kigali today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 27°C with 2.2 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 29°C with 1.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 27°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Kigali?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Kigali forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 34/100): ECMWF forecasts 13 mm of rain while GEM forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:58 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology