Today
3 Nov
29° 20°
78%4.2 mm
59%
9 weather models · one stack
Brasília weather
Federal District, Brazil
-15.78°, -47.97° · 1134 m
Local time 22:19
Confidence 59%
Brasília weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 29°C and a low of 20°C. Rain expected: 78% of models agree, about 4.2 mm. Tomorrow: 29°C. Rain expected: 78% of models agree, about 4.4 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
29° 20°
78%4.4 mm
56%
Thu
5 Nov
30° 21°
78%4.5 mm
60%
Fri
6 Nov
30° 20°
56%2.7 mm
45%
Sat
7 Nov
30° 21°
67%3.3 mm
40%
Sun
8 Nov
28° 20°
86%9.2 mm
64%
Mon
9 Nov
25° 20°
100%12 mm
81%
Tue
10 Nov
25° 20°
67%6.4 mm
52%
Wed
11 Nov
23° 18°
100%7.0 mm
61%
Thu
12 Nov
23° 18°
100%6.6 mm
57%
Fri
13 Nov
24° 18°
100%11 mm
92%
Sat
14 Nov
25° 18°
100%5.5 mm
75%
Sun
15 Nov
26° 18°
100%6.2 mm
78%
Mon
16 Nov
23° 18°
100%8.4 mm
79%
Tue
17 Nov
24° 19°
100%3.6 mm
82%
Wed
18 Nov
26° 19°
50%5.8 mm
19%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Brasília
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Brasília on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Brasília
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 29°/20° · 4.2 mm | 29°/20° · 4.4 mm | 30°/21° · 4.5 mm | 30°/20° · 2.7 mm | 30°/21° · 3.3 mm | 28°/20° · 9.2 mm | 25°/20° · 12 mm |
| ECMWF | 29°/19° · 24 mm | 30°/20° · 7.1 mm | 30°/19° · 5.2 mm | 30°/20° · 16 mm | 30°/19° · 0.9 mm | 28°/19° · 6.3 mm | 25°/19° · 12 mm |
| AIFS | 28°/20° · 16 mm | 29°/20° · 3.8 mm | 28°/19° · 8.4 mm | 30°/19° · 3.4 mm | 31°/21° · 3.4 mm | 27°/21° · 9.4 mm | 26°/20° · 11 mm |
| GFS | 30°/19° · 4.2 mm | 29°/21° · 15 mm | 31°/21° · 0.2 mm | 32°/22° · 0.0 mm | 32°/23° · 0.0 mm | 25°/20° · 9.2 mm | 24°/20° · 7.6 mm |
| ICON | 29°/20° · 1.4 mm | 29°/19° · 2.2 mm | 28°/21° · 4.3 mm | 31°/20° · 2.7 mm | 29°/21° · 6.0 mm | 29°/21° · 14 mm | 27°/21° · 28 mm |
| GEM | 29°/18° · 0.0 mm | 30°/18° · 8.3 mm | 30°/18° · 8.1 mm | 29°/19° · 12 mm | 28°/19° · 3.3 mm | 29°/18° · 4.6 mm | 23°/19° · 18 mm |
| JMA | 25°/21° · 7.8 mm | 25°/21° · 12 mm | 28°/21° · 2.2 mm | 30°/22° · 7.4 mm | 27°/22° · 16 mm | 27°/22° · 0.6 mm | 25°/21° · 9.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 29°/19° · 0.0 mm | 30°/20° · 4.4 mm | 29°/21° · 6.1 mm | 31°/19° · 0.0 mm | 30°/20° · 1.2 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 29°/20° · 5.8 mm | 28°/20° · 0.8 mm | 30°/20° · 0.0 mm | 30°/21° · 0.3 mm | 29°/22° · 3.4 mm | 30°/20° · 19 mm | 27°/20° · 36 mm |
| CMA | 29°/21° · 1.2 mm | 29°/21° · 0.9 mm | 31°/22° · 4.5 mm | 32°/22° · 0.0 mm | 34°/23° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 40/100. JMA brings 16 mm of rain while GFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 27° (JMA) to 34° (CMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Brasília weather: questions
Will it rain in Brasília tomorrow?
Rain expected: 78% of models agree, about 4.4 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 4.4 mm, ranging from 0.8 mm to 15 mm.
When will it rain next in Brasília?
The next day most models agree on rain is Tuesday 3 November: 78% of models, about 4.2 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Brasília today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 29°C with 24 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 30°C with 4.2 mm. The median of all 9 models is 29°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Brasília?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Brasília forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 40/100): JMA forecasts 16 mm of rain while GFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:19 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology