Today
3 Nov
33° 24°
56%1.2 mm
10%
9 weather models · one stack
Rio de Janeiro weather
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
-22.95°, -43.22° · 12 m
Local time 22:19
Confidence 10%
Rio de Janeiro weather today: 9 models agree with low confidence on a high of 33°C and a low of 24°C. Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.2 mm. Tomorrow: 30°C. A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 5.5 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
30° 23°
22%0.0 mm
31%
Thu
5 Nov
34° 24°
89%4.2 mm
35%
Fri
6 Nov
25° 23°
78%2.3 mm
63%
Sat
7 Nov
32° 22°
100%6.2 mm
57%
Sun
8 Nov
25° 20°
100%14 mm
91%
Mon
9 Nov
23° 18°
57%2.1 mm
37%
Tue
10 Nov
23° 18°
50%0.7 mm
32%
Wed
11 Nov
25° 19°
0%0.0 mm
76%
Thu
12 Nov
28° 19°
20%0.0 mm
50%
Fri
13 Nov
25° 21°
100%8.8 mm
95%
Sat
14 Nov
26° 20°
67%4.8 mm
61%
Sun
15 Nov
26° 20°
67%4.2 mm
64%
Mon
16 Nov
28° 20°
67%1.2 mm
66%
Tue
17 Nov
29° 20°
67%24 mm
20%
Wed
18 Nov
30° 22°
100%4.8 mm
32%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Rio de Janeiro
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Rio de Janeiro on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Rio de Janeiro
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 33°/24° · 1.2 mm | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | 34°/24° · 4.2 mm | 25°/23° · 2.3 mm | 32°/22° · 6.2 mm | 25°/20° · 14 mm | 23°/18° · 2.1 mm |
| ECMWF | 31°/23° · 1.2 mm | 28°/23° · 0.0 mm | 37°/23° · 1.2 mm | 25°/23° · 1.3 mm | 31°/22° · 5.7 mm | 25°/20° · 14 mm | 23°/20° · 0.6 mm |
| AIFS | 30°/22° · 2.4 mm | 30°/21° · 0.2 mm | 28°/22° · 4.2 mm | 26°/22° · 3.4 mm | 32°/21° · 6.2 mm | 25°/19° · 15 mm | 20°/18° · 8.2 mm |
| GFS | 34°/23° · 0.2 mm | 33°/23° · 5.5 mm | 31°/23° · 3.2 mm | 25°/22° · 1.3 mm | 31°/22° · 16 mm | 25°/19° · 18 mm | 20°/18° · 6.5 mm |
| ICON | 35°/24° · 0.1 mm | 33°/23° · 0.0 mm | 38°/25° · 20 mm | 27°/24° · 4.5 mm | 34°/23° · 2.7 mm | 26°/20° · 17 mm | 24°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 33°/22° · 3.0 mm | 32°/22° · 0.0 mm | 29°/23° · 6.9 mm | 25°/21° · 2.3 mm | 33°/20° · 5.0 mm | 24°/19° · 13 mm | 23°/17° · 0.5 mm |
| JMA | 27°/24° · 1.2 mm | 25°/24° · 0.0 mm | 29°/24° · 6.6 mm | 24°/23° · 7.2 mm | 31°/23° · 1.4 mm | 25°/21° · 9.0 mm | 21°/20° · 3.4 mm |
| ARPEGE | 26°/24° · 2.2 mm | 25°/23° · 0.0 mm | 34°/24° · 0.2 mm | 24°/24° · 0.4 mm | 25°/24° · 23 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 36°/24° · 0.9 mm | 33°/25° · 0.0 mm | 38°/25° · 2.4 mm | 27°/24° · 0.3 mm | 36°/22° · 41 mm | 24°/21° · 13 mm | 24°/18° · 2.1 mm |
| CMA | 34°/24° · 0.0 mm | 30°/23° · 2.4 mm | 40°/24° · 5.0 mm | 26°/23° · 3.8 mm | 33°/22° · 8.2 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 10/100. GEM brings 3.0 mm of rain while CMA has 0.0 mm; highs range from 26° (ARPEGE) to 36° (UKMO). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Rio de Janeiro weather: questions
Will it rain in Rio de Janeiro tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 5.5 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 5.5 mm.
When will it rain next in Rio de Janeiro?
The next day most models agree on rain is Tuesday 3 November: 56% of models, about 1.2 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Rio de Janeiro today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 31°C with 1.2 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 34°C with 0.2 mm. The median of all 9 models is 33°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Rio de Janeiro?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Rio de Janeiro forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 10/100): GEM forecasts 3.0 mm of rain while CMA forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:18 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology