Today
3 Nov
26° 21°
33%0.6 mm
57%
9 weather models · one stack
Lima weather
Lima Province, Peru
-12.06°, -77.06° · 155 m
Local time 20:14
Confidence 57%
Lima weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 26°C and a low of 21°C. A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 2.8 mm. Tomorrow: 26°C. Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.0 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
26° 21°
56%1.0 mm
45%
Thu
5 Nov
26° 21°
22%0.3 mm
66%
Fri
6 Nov
27° 21°
11%0.0 mm
65%
Sat
7 Nov
27° 22°
0%0.3 mm
70%
Sun
8 Nov
27° 22°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Mon
9 Nov
27° 22°
29%0.4 mm
59%
Tue
10 Nov
27° 22°
17%0.1 mm
70%
Wed
11 Nov
27° 22°
20%0.0 mm
69%
Thu
12 Nov
26° 22°
20%0.6 mm
66%
Fri
13 Nov
27° 23°
25%0.4 mm
69%
Sat
14 Nov
27° 23°
33%0.4 mm
64%
Sun
15 Nov
27° 23°
33%0.6 mm
63%
Mon
16 Nov
25° 23°
67%1.0 mm
55%
Tue
17 Nov
26° 23°
33%0.6 mm
56%
Wed
18 Nov
27° 22°
0%0.1 mm
61%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Lima
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Lima on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Lima
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 26°/21° · 0.6 mm | 26°/21° · 1.0 mm | 26°/21° · 0.3 mm | 27°/21° · 0.0 mm | 27°/22° · 0.3 mm | 27°/22° · 0.0 mm | 27°/22° · 0.4 mm |
| ECMWF | 25°/22° · 2.8 mm | 25°/22° · 2.2 mm | 25°/22° · 0.1 mm | 26°/22° · 0.1 mm | 26°/22° · 0.3 mm | 26°/22° · 0.0 mm | 26°/22° · 1.0 mm |
| AIFS | 25°/22° · 0.6 mm | 25°/22° · 0.6 mm | 26°/21° · 0.0 mm | 26°/22° · 0.0 mm | 26°/22° · 0.6 mm | 26°/22° · 0.4 mm | 26°/22° · 1.2 mm |
| GFS | 27°/20° · 0.0 mm | 25°/21° · 0.0 mm | 25°/21° · 0.0 mm | 26°/21° · 0.0 mm | 25°/21° · 0.0 mm | 25°/21° · 0.0 mm | 25°/22° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 27°/22° · 0.0 mm | 27°/22° · 0.0 mm | 28°/22° · 0.0 mm | 29°/22° · 0.0 mm | 29°/22° · 0.9 mm | 29°/22° · 0.0 mm | 28°/22° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 26°/21° · 0.5 mm | 26°/21° · 1.7 mm | 25°/22° · 0.4 mm | 27°/21° · 0.0 mm | 27°/21° · 0.0 mm | 27°/22° · 0.0 mm | 27°/22° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 25°/21° · 1.6 mm | 25°/21° · 3.0 mm | 25°/21° · 1.8 mm | 26°/21° · 1.2 mm | 26°/22° · 0.8 mm | 28°/22° · 0.6 mm | 28°/22° · 0.6 mm |
| ARPEGE | 26°/22° · 0.8 mm | 27°/22° · 1.0 mm | 27°/22° · 1.2 mm | 30°/23° · 0.0 mm | 31°/23° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 27°/21° · 1.5 mm | 26°/21° · 1.8 mm | 26°/21° · 0.5 mm | 28°/21° · 0.1 mm | 28°/21° · 0.8 mm | 28°/21° · 0.9 mm | 28°/21° · 0.4 mm |
| CMA | 27°/20° · 0.0 mm | 27°/21° · 0.6 mm | 27°/21° · 0.3 mm | 28°/21° · 0.0 mm | 28°/22° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Wednesday
Confidence is only 45/100. JMA brings 3.0 mm of rain while GFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 25° (ECMWF) to 27° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Lima weather: questions
Will it rain in Lima tomorrow?
Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.0 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 1.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 3.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Lima?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 56% of models, about 1.0 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Lima today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 25°C with 2.8 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 27°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 26°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Lima?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Lima forecast this week?
The least certain day is Wednesday (confidence 45/100): JMA forecasts 3.0 mm of rain while GFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology