Today
3 Nov
29° 18°
0%0.0 mm
91%
9 weather models · one stack
São Paulo weather
São Paulo, Brazil
-23.51°, -46.61° · 752 m
Local time 22:20
Confidence 91%
São Paulo weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 29°C and a low of 18°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 32°C. Dry: only 11% of models show rain. Next likely rain: Thursday 5 November (100% of models, ~7.4 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
32° 19°
11%0.0 mm
75%
Thu
5 Nov
29° 20°
100%7.4 mm
52%
Fri
6 Nov
24° 18°
56%1.3 mm
30%
Sat
7 Nov
29° 18°
100%14 mm
71%
Sun
8 Nov
20° 14°
100%10 mm
82%
Mon
9 Nov
18° 12°
29%0.4 mm
40%
Tue
10 Nov
21° 12°
0%0.0 mm
61%
Wed
11 Nov
25° 13°
0%0.0 mm
65%
Thu
12 Nov
22° 16°
80%13 mm
36%
Fri
13 Nov
24° 17°
100%9.8 mm
85%
Sat
14 Nov
26° 17°
33%0.6 mm
56%
Sun
15 Nov
26° 18°
33%0.6 mm
47%
Mon
16 Nov
26° 17°
67%1.5 mm
25%
Tue
17 Nov
25° 17°
67%2.4 mm
24%
Wed
18 Nov
28° 19°
50%0.6 mm
8%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around São Paulo
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over São Paulo on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for São Paulo
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 29°/18° · 0.0 mm | 32°/19° · 0.0 mm | 29°/20° · 7.4 mm | 24°/18° · 1.3 mm | 29°/18° · 14 mm | 20°/14° · 10 mm | 18°/12° · 0.4 mm |
| ECMWF | 29°/18° · 0.0 mm | 31°/19° · 0.0 mm | 30°/22° · 5.1 mm | 24°/18° · 1.5 mm | 29°/19° · 13 mm | 21°/14° · 17 mm | 18°/12° · 0.4 mm |
| AIFS | 30°/17° · 0.0 mm | 30°/19° · 2.0 mm | 23°/20° · 7.4 mm | 25°/18° · 2.0 mm | 27°/18° · 10 mm | 20°/15° · 10 mm | 19°/14° · 1.6 mm |
| GFS | 30°/18° · 0.0 mm | 30°/20° · 0.0 mm | 25°/20° · 37 mm | 20°/18° · 0.5 mm | 29°/18° · 20 mm | 20°/14° · 16 mm | 14°/13° · 0.7 mm |
| ICON | 30°/18° · 0.0 mm | 33°/18° · 0.0 mm | 29°/21° · 14 mm | 26°/19° · 0.0 mm | 26°/20° · 24 mm | 21°/13° · 3.4 mm | 21°/12° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 29°/16° · 0.0 mm | 32°/17° · 0.0 mm | 28°/20° · 13 mm | 21°/18° · 2.1 mm | 33°/16° · 20 mm | 20°/13° · 11 mm | 17°/12° · 1.5 mm |
| JMA | 29°/18° · 0.0 mm | 30°/19° · 0.6 mm | 28°/21° · 5.4 mm | 24°/19° · 3.0 mm | 29°/20° · 2.4 mm | 21°/12° · 8.4 mm | 17°/12° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 29°/18° · 0.0 mm | 32°/18° · 0.0 mm | 30°/18° · 2.4 mm | 21°/17° · 0.6 mm | 29°/18° · 2.1 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 30°/18° · 0.3 mm | 32°/21° · 0.0 mm | 29°/21° · 24 mm | 25°/18° · 1.3 mm | 29°/19° · 14 mm | 17°/14° · 2.3 mm | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 29°/20° · 0.0 mm | 32°/20° · 0.0 mm | 34°/19° · 4.8 mm | 23°/18° · 0.3 mm | 31°/18° · 36 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Friday
Confidence is only 30/100. JMA brings 3.0 mm of rain while ICON has 0.0 mm; highs range from 20° (GFS) to 26° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
São Paulo weather: questions
Will it rain in São Paulo tomorrow?
Dry: only 11% of models show rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 2.0 mm.
When will it rain next in São Paulo?
The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 5 November: 100% of models, about 7.4 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for São Paulo today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 29°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 30°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 29°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for São Paulo?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the São Paulo forecast this week?
The least certain day is Friday (confidence 30/100): JMA forecasts 3.0 mm of rain while ICON forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:18 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology