Today
3 Nov
22° 15°
67%2.0 mm
31%
9 weather models · one stack
Montevideo weather
Montevideo Department, Uruguay
-34.90°, -56.19° · 31 m
Local time 22:15
Confidence 31%
Montevideo weather today: 9 models agree with low confidence on a high of 22°C and a low of 15°C. Rain expected: 67% of models agree, about 2.0 mm. Tomorrow: 20°C. Rain expected: 78% of models agree, about 2.4 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
20° 16°
78%2.4 mm
48%
Thu
5 Nov
22° 15°
0%0.0 mm
71%
Fri
6 Nov
22° 14°
67%2.4 mm
40%
Sat
7 Nov
16° 12°
44%0.9 mm
45%
Sun
8 Nov
18° 11°
0%0.0 mm
72%
Mon
9 Nov
24° 11°
0%0.0 mm
64%
Tue
10 Nov
26° 15°
0%0.0 mm
68%
Wed
11 Nov
23° 18°
20%0.0 mm
42%
Thu
12 Nov
24° 19°
0%0.0 mm
55%
Fri
13 Nov
24° 19°
25%0.3 mm
47%
Sat
14 Nov
23° 17°
33%0.6 mm
32%
Sun
15 Nov
27° 17°
33%0.6 mm
15%
Mon
16 Nov
21° 17°
67%5.8 mm
49%
Tue
17 Nov
19° 16°
33%0.0 mm
64%
Wed
18 Nov
22° 13°
50%1.1 mm
0%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Montevideo
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Montevideo on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Montevideo
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 22°/15° · 2.0 mm | 20°/16° · 2.4 mm | 22°/15° · 0.0 mm | 22°/14° · 2.4 mm | 16°/12° · 0.9 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 24°/11° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 18°/16° · 1.2 mm | 19°/16° · 2.4 mm | 20°/17° · 0.0 mm | 21°/15° · 2.6 mm | 17°/13° · 2.6 mm | 16°/12° · 0.0 mm | 20°/11° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 22°/15° · 2.0 mm | 22°/16° · 3.4 mm | 24°/15° · 0.0 mm | 22°/14° · 2.4 mm | 17°/12° · 3.0 mm | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm | 24°/11° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 23°/14° · 2.5 mm | 23°/15° · 0.9 mm | 23°/14° · 0.0 mm | 25°/14° · 0.3 mm | 16°/11° · 0.1 mm | 17°/9° · 0.0 mm | 23°/8° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 22°/15° · 4.7 mm | 20°/16° · 0.7 mm | 22°/16° · 0.0 mm | 22°/15° · 0.2 mm | 15°/12° · 0.1 mm | 18°/12° · 0.0 mm | 25°/13° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 23°/14° · 0.6 mm | 23°/15° · 2.8 mm | 23°/13° · 0.0 mm | 24°/13° · 2.0 mm | 16°/10° · 0.9 mm | 18°/6° · 0.0 mm | 25°/7° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 18°/16° · 2.0 mm | 18°/16° · 5.2 mm | 19°/17° · 0.0 mm | 21°/16° · 4.8 mm | 16°/13° · 13 mm | 16°/13° · 0.0 mm | 21°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 18°/17° · 4.6 mm | 18°/17° · 1.8 mm | 19°/17° · 0.2 mm | 19°/16° · 0.3 mm | 15°/14° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 25°/15° · 0.6 mm | 23°/16° · 1.2 mm | 24°/15° · 0.0 mm | 24°/14° · 3.4 mm | 15°/12° · 2.0 mm | 22°/10° · 0.0 mm | 26°/14° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 24°/15° · 0.0 mm | 20°/16° · 5.7 mm | 21°/15° · 0.0 mm | 24°/14° · 9.2 mm | 15°/11° · 0.7 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 31/100. ICON brings 4.7 mm of rain while CMA has 0.0 mm; highs range from 18° (JMA) to 25° (UKMO). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Montevideo weather: questions
Will it rain in Montevideo tomorrow?
Rain expected: 78% of models agree, about 2.4 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 2.4 mm, ranging from 0.7 mm to 5.7 mm.
When will it rain next in Montevideo?
The next day most models agree on rain is Tuesday 3 November: 67% of models, about 2.0 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Montevideo today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 18°C with 1.2 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 23°C with 2.5 mm. The median of all 9 models is 22°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Montevideo?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Montevideo forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 31/100): ICON forecasts 4.7 mm of rain while CMA forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:28 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology