Today
3 Nov
83° 72°
89%0.33 in
81%
9 weather models · one stack
Tampa weather
Florida, United States
27.94°, -82.49° · 11 m
Local time 20:16
Confidence 81%
Tampa weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 83°F and a low of 72°F. Rain expected: 89% of models agree, about 0.33 in. Tomorrow: 83°F. Rain expected: 67% of models agree, about 0.12 in.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
83° 72°
67%0.12 in
58%
Thu
5 Nov
83° 71°
56%0.04 in
42%
Fri
6 Nov
82° 71°
11%0.00 in
73%
Sat
7 Nov
80° 69°
0%0.00 in
83%
Sun
8 Nov
79° 64°
0%0.00 in
91%
Mon
9 Nov
78° 64°
14%0.00 in
71%
Tue
10 Nov
78° 65°
33%0.00 in
52%
Wed
11 Nov
77° 63°
20%0.00 in
68%
Thu
12 Nov
77° 62°
20%0.00 in
70%
Fri
13 Nov
78° 63°
25%0.00 in
57%
Sat
14 Nov
77° 65°
67%0.06 in
51%
Sun
15 Nov
78° 65°
67%0.08 in
29%
Mon
16 Nov
78° 63°
67%0.05 in
19%
Tue
17 Nov
79° 63°
33%0.00 in
53%
Wed
18 Nov
76° 62°
0%0.00 in
67%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Tampa
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Tampa on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Tampa
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 83°/72° · 0.33 in | 83°/72° · 0.12 in | 83°/71° · 0.04 in | 82°/71° · 0.00 in | 80°/69° · 0.00 in | 79°/64° · 0.00 in | 78°/64° · 0.00 in |
| ECMWF | 84°/71° · 0.37 in | 83°/72° · 0.39 in | 83°/71° · 0.13 in | 82°/70° · 0.00 in | 81°/69° · 0.00 in | 79°/65° · 0.00 in | 77°/61° · 0.00 in |
| AIFS | 83°/72° · 0.21 in | 86°/73° · 0.20 in | 85°/72° · 0.09 in | 84°/72° · 0.02 in | 80°/67° · 0.00 in | 79°/61° · 0.00 in | 81°/62° · 0.00 in |
| GFS | 83°/71° · 0.00 in | 82°/73° · 0.00 in | 87°/70° · 0.00 in | 86°/71° · 0.00 in | 85°/71° · 0.00 in | 81°/63° · 0.00 in | 82°/66° · 0.24 in |
| ICON | 85°/72° · 0.35 in | 85°/72° · <0.01 in | 86°/70° · 0.00 in | 86°/71° · 0.00 in | 82°/64° · 0.00 in | 78°/60° · 0.00 in | 77°/62° · 0.00 in |
| GEM | 83°/73° · 0.24 in | 82°/71° · 0.23 in | 80°/71° · 0.13 in | 81°/70° · 0.05 in | 80°/67° · 0.00 in | 79°/64° · 0.00 in | 80°/66° · 0.00 in |
| JMA | 82°/73° · 0.12 in | 83°/73° · 0.06 in | 83°/72° · <0.01 in | 82°/73° · 0.00 in | 78°/71° · 0.00 in | 81°/66° · 0.00 in | 77°/64° · 0.00 in |
| ARPEGE | 82°/72° · 0.33 in | 81°/71° · 0.30 in | 82°/71° · 0.04 in | 80°/69° · 0.01 in | 78°/69° · 0.00 in | - | - |
| UKMO | 82°/72° · 0.37 in | 84°/73° · 0.02 in | 82°/72° · 0.10 in | 83°/72° · 0.01 in | 81°/71° · 0.00 in | 79°/65° · 0.00 in | 78°/64° · 0.00 in |
| CMA | 84°/71° · 0.33 in | 83°/72° · 0.12 in | 83°/72° · 0.00 in | 81°/71° · 0.00 in | 80°/70° · 0.00 in | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Thursday
Confidence is only 42/100. ECMWF brings 0.13 in of rain while GFS has 0.00 in; highs range from 80° (GEM) to 87° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Tampa weather: questions
Will it rain in Tampa tomorrow?
Rain expected: 67% of models agree, about 0.12 in. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.12 in, ranging from 0.00 in to 0.39 in.
When will it rain next in Tampa?
The next day most models agree on rain is Tuesday 3 November: 89% of models, about 0.33 in.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Tampa today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 84°F with 0.37 in of rain; GFS (the American model) says 83°F with 0.00 in. The median of all 9 models is 83°F.
Which weather model is most accurate for Tampa?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Tampa forecast this week?
The least certain day is Thursday (confidence 42/100): ECMWF forecasts 0.13 in of rain while GFS forecasts 0.00 in.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:16 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology