Today
3 Nov
72° 61°
44%0.04 in
34%
9 weather models · one stack
Chicago weather
Illinois, United States
41.86°, -87.65° · 179 m
Local time 19:14
Confidence 34%
Chicago weather today: 9 models agree with low confidence on a high of 72°F and a low of 61°F. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 0.17 in. Tomorrow: 65°F. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 0.33 in.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
65° 54°
100%0.33 in
79%
Thu
5 Nov
55° 48°
78%0.07 in
67%
Fri
6 Nov
48° 42°
22%0.01 in
61%
Sat
7 Nov
48° 37°
0%0.00 in
71%
Sun
8 Nov
56° 39°
0%0.00 in
91%
Mon
9 Nov
57° 42°
0%0.00 in
70%
Tue
10 Nov
57° 47°
0%0.00 in
69%
Wed
11 Nov
52° 42°
20%0.00 in
41%
Thu
12 Nov
52° 44°
0%0.00 in
50%
Fri
13 Nov
60° 46°
0%0.00 in
66%
Sat
14 Nov
61° 52°
33%0.00 in
15%
Sun
15 Nov
61° 53°
33%0.00 in
15%
Mon
16 Nov
57° 51°
33%<0.01 in
15%
Tue
17 Nov
54° 42°
33%0.00 in
50%
Wed
18 Nov
51° 40°
0%0.00 in
48%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Chicago
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Chicago on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Chicago
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 72°/61° · 0.04 in | 65°/54° · 0.33 in | 55°/48° · 0.07 in | 48°/42° · 0.01 in | 48°/37° · 0.00 in | 56°/39° · 0.00 in | 57°/42° · 0.00 in |
| ECMWF | 72°/61° · 0.09 in | 65°/55° · 0.56 in | 55°/50° · 0.03 in | 49°/43° · 0.01 in | 47°/37° · 0.00 in | 56°/38° · 0.00 in | 57°/42° · 0.00 in |
| AIFS | 71°/61° · 0.17 in | 66°/54° · 0.23 in | 53°/49° · 0.11 in | 48°/40° · <0.01 in | 48°/35° · 0.00 in | 57°/39° · 0.00 in | 62°/38° · 0.00 in |
| GFS | 72°/60° · 0.00 in | 65°/50° · 0.34 in | 57°/46° · 0.07 in | 50°/44° · 0.07 in | 48°/38° · 0.00 in | 56°/41° · 0.00 in | 59°/45° · 0.00 in |
| ICON | 72°/62° · 0.04 in | 67°/56° · 0.33 in | 56°/49° · 0.07 in | 51°/42° · 0.00 in | 53°/40° · 0.00 in | 56°/35° · 0.00 in | 57°/39° · 0.00 in |
| GEM | 75°/62° · 0.00 in | 71°/52° · 0.50 in | 52°/50° · 0.17 in | 47°/38° · 0.07 in | 49°/37° · 0.00 in | 54°/36° · 0.00 in | 55°/35° · 0.00 in |
| JMA | 64°/58° · 0.04 in | 61°/55° · 0.24 in | 56°/47° · 0.02 in | 46°/43° · 0.03 in | 50°/42° · 0.00 in | 55°/49° · 0.00 in | 51°/46° · 0.00 in |
| ARPEGE | 69°/60° · 0.04 in | 65°/53° · 0.36 in | 53°/48° · 0.06 in | 47°/40° · <0.01 in | 50°/36° · 0.00 in | - | - |
| UKMO | 74°/61° · 0.03 in | 66°/54° · 0.21 in | 55°/48° · 0.08 in | 48°/43° · 0.00 in | 42°/38° · 0.00 in | 57°/39° · 0.00 in | 54°/46° · 0.00 in |
| CMA | 71°/56° · 0.08 in | 64°/52° · 0.28 in | 53°/45° · 0.06 in | 43°/35° · 0.02 in | 43°/29° · 0.00 in | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 34/100. AIFS brings 0.17 in of rain while GFS has 0.00 in; highs range from 64° (JMA) to 75° (GEM). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Chicago weather: questions
Will it rain in Chicago tomorrow?
Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 0.33 in. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.33 in, ranging from 0.21 in to 0.56 in.
When will it rain next in Chicago?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 100% of models, about 0.33 in.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Chicago today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 72°F with 0.09 in of rain; GFS (the American model) says 72°F with 0.00 in. The median of all 9 models is 72°F.
Which weather model is most accurate for Chicago?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Chicago forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 34/100): AIFS forecasts 0.17 in of rain while GFS forecasts 0.00 in.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology