Today
3 Nov
20° 12°
22%0.0 mm
59%
9 weather models · one stack
Toronto weather
Ontario, Canada
43.69°, -79.41° · 165 m
Local time 20:14
Confidence 59%
Toronto weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 20°C and a low of 12°C. A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 2.8 mm. Tomorrow: 19°C. Rain expected: 89% of models agree, about 3.7 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
19° 13°
89%3.7 mm
67%
Thu
5 Nov
16° 12°
78%2.8 mm
68%
Fri
6 Nov
13° 9°
89%3.8 mm
75%
Sat
7 Nov
9° 6°
56%1.6 mm
32%
Sun
8 Nov
9° 5°
71%1.5 mm
48%
Mon
9 Nov
10° 6°
14%0.2 mm
57%
Tue
10 Nov
13° 6°
17%0.0 mm
60%
Wed
11 Nov
8° 2°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Thu
12 Nov
8° 1°
0%0.0 mm
53%
Fri
13 Nov
12° 4°
0%0.0 mm
45%
Sat
14 Nov
13° 9°
0%0.0 mm
45%
Sun
15 Nov
16° 12°
67%1.2 mm
15%
Mon
16 Nov
16° 11°
33%0.0 mm
15%
Tue
17 Nov
15° 2°
33%0.0 mm
50%
Wed
18 Nov
7° 2°
0%0.2 mm
32%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Toronto
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Toronto on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Toronto
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 19°/13° · 3.7 mm | 16°/12° · 2.8 mm | 13°/9° · 3.8 mm | 9°/6° · 1.6 mm | 9°/5° · 1.5 mm | 10°/6° · 0.2 mm |
| ECMWF | 20°/13° · 2.8 mm | 19°/13° · 3.0 mm | 16°/12° · 2.8 mm | 13°/9° · 0.1 mm | 12°/8° · 1.6 mm | 10°/6° · 2.0 mm | 12°/6° · 0.4 mm |
| AIFS | 21°/12° · 0.6 mm | 19°/13° · 6.2 mm | 16°/12° · 4.4 mm | 12°/8° · 4.2 mm | 9°/6° · 2.6 mm | 9°/4° · 1.0 mm | 10°/6° · 0.2 mm |
| GFS | 21°/12° · 0.0 mm | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 18°/15° · 2.2 mm | 16°/10° · 4.1 mm | 10°/8° · 9.3 mm | 13°/6° · 0.0 mm | 13°/6° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 20°/13° · 1.2 mm | 20°/13° · 3.9 mm | 17°/13° · 0.9 mm | 13°/5° · 9.9 mm | 5°/1° · 0.0 mm | 13°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 9°/3° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 21°/12° · 0.0 mm | 22°/13° · 3.7 mm | 16°/11° · 1.9 mm | 13°/9° · 9.9 mm | 11°/8° · 13 mm | 9°/7° · 1.5 mm | 10°/7° · 1.8 mm |
| JMA | 17°/12° · 0.0 mm | 17°/13° · 13 mm | 16°/12° · 6.4 mm | 12°/10° · 1.0 mm | 9°/6° · 0.8 mm | 9°/5° · 1.6 mm | 8°/6° · 0.2 mm |
| ARPEGE | 21°/12° · 0.0 mm | 17°/12° · 6.8 mm | 16°/12° · 0.6 mm | 13°/8° · 3.8 mm | 9°/6° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/15° · 1.1 mm | 17°/13° · 6.5 mm | 13°/10° · 1.1 mm | 9°/7° · 0.7 mm | 9°/5° · 2.7 mm | 8°/5° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm | 21°/12° · 3.6 mm | 16°/11° · 3.9 mm | 13°/8° · 3.0 mm | 8°/1° · 1.8 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 32/100. GEM brings 13 mm of rain while ICON has 0.0 mm; highs range from 5° (ICON) to 12° (ECMWF). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Toronto weather: questions
Will it rain in Toronto tomorrow?
Rain expected: 89% of models agree, about 3.7 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 3.7 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 13 mm.
When will it rain next in Toronto?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 89% of models, about 3.7 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Toronto today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 20°C with 2.8 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 21°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 20°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Toronto?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Toronto forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 32/100): GEM forecasts 13 mm of rain while ICON forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology