Today
3 Nov
14° 10°
100%7.2 mm
93%
9 weather models · one stack
Ottawa weather
Ontario, Canada
45.45°, -75.75° · 74 m
Local time 20:14
Confidence 93%
Ottawa weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 14°C and a low of 10°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 7.2 mm. Tomorrow: 20°C. Dry: no model shows rain.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
20° 12°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Thu
5 Nov
19° 12°
100%6.3 mm
85%
Fri
6 Nov
13° 9°
67%1.9 mm
51%
Sat
7 Nov
10° 7°
78%4.4 mm
53%
Sun
8 Nov
9° 5°
57%1.8 mm
46%
Mon
9 Nov
7° 4°
29%0.0 mm
62%
Tue
10 Nov
8° 2°
67%1.9 mm
37%
Wed
11 Nov
5° 1°
0%0.0 mm
89%
Thu
12 Nov
4° -0°
0%0.0 mm
46%
Fri
13 Nov
8° -0°
25%0.0 mm
23%
Sat
14 Nov
8° 4°
33%0.0 mm
15%
Sun
15 Nov
12° 4°
33%0.0 mm
15%
Mon
16 Nov
11° 9°
67%1.8 mm
15%
Tue
17 Nov
13° 6°
33%0.2 mm
23%
Wed
18 Nov
8° 1°
50%0.5 mm
6%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Ottawa
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Ottawa on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Ottawa
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 14°/10° · 7.2 mm | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 6.3 mm | 13°/9° · 1.9 mm | 10°/7° · 4.4 mm | 9°/5° · 1.8 mm | 7°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 14°/10° · 7.1 mm | 20°/11° · 0.0 mm | 18°/10° · 6.1 mm | 14°/10° · 1.9 mm | 10°/9° · 20 mm | 9°/4° · 6.5 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 14°/9° · 9.4 mm | 21°/12° · 0.6 mm | 19°/12° · 7.2 mm | 13°/11° · 6.0 mm | 11°/7° · 19 mm | 8°/5° · 4.2 mm | 6°/5° · 1.6 mm |
| GFS | 14°/11° · 8.4 mm | 19°/10° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 3.7 mm | 16°/11° · 0.9 mm | 11°/8° · 2.0 mm | 9°/5° · 0.2 mm | 8°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 14°/11° · 4.6 mm | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/13° · 3.6 mm | 13°/6° · 5.9 mm | 7°/4° · 0.8 mm | 11°/-0° · 0.0 mm | 7°/0° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 15°/11° · 9.1 mm | 21°/12° · 0.0 mm | 19°/12° · 5.9 mm | 14°/9° · 0.8 mm | 10°/6° · 2.4 mm | 9°/4° · 2.1 mm | 7°/3° · 1.1 mm |
| JMA | 14°/10° · 7.2 mm | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | 20°/14° · 7.8 mm | 16°/9° · 0.0 mm | 12°/8° · 23 mm | 8°/5° · 1.8 mm | 7°/2° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 13°/10° · 13 mm | 18°/13° · 0.9 mm | 16°/13° · 9.7 mm | 12°/5° · 5.1 mm | 9°/4° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 14°/11° · 6.7 mm | 19°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/13° · 6.3 mm | 12°/9° · 8.6 mm | 9°/7° · 21 mm | 8°/6° · 0.8 mm | 7°/4° · 0.2 mm |
| CMA | 14°/9° · 3.0 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 18°/10° · 9.0 mm | 13°/7° · 1.9 mm | 7°/5° · 4.4 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Sunday
Confidence is only 46/100. ECMWF brings 6.5 mm of rain while ICON has 0.0 mm; highs range from 8° (AIFS) to 11° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Ottawa weather: questions
Will it rain in Ottawa tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.9 mm.
When will it rain next in Ottawa?
The next day most models agree on rain is Tuesday 3 November: 100% of models, about 7.2 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Ottawa today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 14°C with 7.1 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 14°C with 8.4 mm. The median of all 9 models is 14°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Ottawa?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Ottawa forecast this week?
The least certain day is Sunday (confidence 46/100): ECMWF forecasts 6.5 mm of rain while ICON forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology